Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the September 27, 2023 Republican Presidential debate?
147
1.9K
resolved Sep 29
Resolved
NO

A GOP Presidential debate will be held on September 27, 2023.

This market resolves to YES if businessman Vivek Ramaswamy wins the debate, according to CNN.com. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.

The most prominently featured article about the debate, linked from the homepage and posted the day after its conclusion, will be used as reference. "Live updates" about the debate are excluded. If the article covers "5 winners and 5 losers" or something similar, then Ramaswamy must be listed first (or last, if the order is counting down) in the list of winners. As long as he is referred to as the sole or the most prominent winner, the reason is irrelevant, even if all he did was meet expectations and even if he didn't attend.

If CNN does not post any articles about the debate on September 28, 2023, if none of the articles about the debate offer an opinion as to who won or lost, or if the debate is cancelled, then the market resolves to N/A.

NOTE: By these criteria, Nikki Haley was the winner of the August 23, 2023 debate and, if such a market had existed, that market would have resolved to YES.


ALTERNATE FORM OF THIS QUESTION:

RELATED MARKETS:

Exactly zero or one of the seven "Will X win the September 27 debate" questions will resolve to YES.

PROP BETS ON THIS DEBATE:


RESOLUTION: CNN's headline on the morning of September 28, 2023 stated that Trump won the debate. There were also no opinion commentators who stated that Ramaswamy won; some criticized him for talking over the other candidates. This market, therefore, resolves to NO.

See https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fme8lLVt6re.png?alt=media&token=e7305c62-d4eb-4e1c-838d-045017dd13a6.

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SteveSokolowski avatar
Steve Sokolowski

To be fair and clear to those betting: the default outcome to these markets as they currently stand is Trump. See below:

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fme8lLVt6re.png?alt=media&token=e7305c62-d4eb-4e1c-838d-045017dd13a6

That article, however, does not explicitly use the word "win" in the body text. Therefore, it is now a race against the clock to see whether an equally prominent article will be posted before market close that more explicitly rates winners and losers and which directly states that someone won in the actual text.

SteveSokolowski avatar
Steve Sokolowski

The next market for this question is now open.

SteveSokolowski avatar
Steve Sokolowski

Another crazy prop bet for those betting on this debate:

https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-or-his-ideas

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky or his ideas be mentioned at the September 27, 2023 Republican Presidential debate?
50% chance. A GOP Presidential debate will be held on September 27, 2023. @EliezerYudkowsky spends a significant portion of his time attempting to publicize his views that artificial intelligence is a threat to humanity's future. This question attempts to determine whether his efforts are becoming effective at bringing the AI safety issue into mainstream policy discussion, or whether his sometimes aggressive rhetoric harms his message. This market resolves to YES if Yudkowsky or any of his unique ideas appear during the debate while it is LIVE on-air. It resolves N/A if the debate is cancelled or posponed past September 30, 2023, and NO otherwise. The following are examples of circumstances that resolve to YES: Anyone saying Yudkowsky's name Any mention of an idea that was firstly or is uniquely attributed to Yudkowsky, such as "some fear that a machine that generates paperclips could destroy the world" Any mention of Yudkowsky's books, writings, or appearances, such as "an article was published in TIME magazine threatening nuclear strikes" The following are insufficient to resolve to YES: Questions about AI in general, such as "how will you ensure that humans are not displaced by ChatGPT?" "There were 1000 signatures to a letter" (unless Yudkowsky wrote the letter and garnered support for it) General statements about ideas that were developed before Yudkowsky's time, such as "an AI takeover could occur" Statements that any machine learning researcher would make, such as "deep learning optimizes for loss functions" If it isn't obvious whether a statement is uniquely attributed to Yudkowsky and there is controversy among bettors, I will feed the transcript of the debate into Claude 2 and ask the model to provide its opinion over whether any ideas that Yudkowsky uniquely developed were discussed in the debate, and the model's answer will be canonical.
ShaunRussell avatar
Shaun Russell

Winning is subjective. How would you verify this?

SteveSokolowski avatar
Steve Sokolowski

@ShaunRussell You can review the discussion around the previous question at https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-vivek-ramaswamy-win-the-august .

Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the August 23, 2023 Republican Presidential debate?
Resolved NO. A GOP Presidential debate will be held on August 23, 2023. This market resolves to YES if businessman Vivek Ramaswamy wins the debate, according to CNN.com. Otherwise, it resolves to NO. The most prominently featured article about the debate, linked from the homepage and posted the day after its conclusion, will be used as reference. "Live updates" about the debate are excluded. If the article covers "5 winners and 5 losers" or something similar, then Ramaswamy must be listed first (or last, if the order is counting down) in the list of winners. As long as he is referred to as the sole or the most prominent winner, the reason is irrelevant, even if all he did was meet expectations and even if he didn't attend. If CNN does not post any articles about the debate before August 31, 2023 at 11:59:59pm EDT, if none of the articles about the debate offer an opinion as to who won or lost, or if the debate is cancelled, then the market resolves to N/A. RESOLUTION: A search of CNN.com was conducted and there were no articles that stated that Ramaswamy won the debate at any position. One opinion piece including a number of commenters had the first commenter state that Haley won the debate. A second piece grading the debate suggested that Haley won the debate and that Ramaswamy lost. Some comments included links to X, to videos of CNN television broadcasts, links to articles on other sites, and polls conducted of voters. None of these were considered because those sources were not in the resolution criteria. Because Haley was clearly the consensus winner from the CNN commenters, this market resolves to NO. Keep the conversation going at https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-vivek-ramaswamy-win-the-septem !