Will Donald Trump win the September 27, 2023 Republican Presidential debate?
Basic
63
Ṁ20k
resolved Sep 29
Resolved
YES

A GOP Presidential debate will be held on September 27, 2023.

This market resolves to YES if Donald Trump wins the debate, according to CNN.com. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.

The most prominently featured article about the debate, linked from the homepage and posted the day after its conclusion, will be used as reference. "Live updates" about the debate are excluded. If the article covers "5 winners and 5 losers" or something similar, then Trump must be listed first (or last, if the order is counting down) in the list of winners. As long as he is referred to as the sole or the most prominent winner, the reason is irrelevant, even if all he did was meet expectations and even if he didn't attend.

If CNN does not post any articles about the debate on September 28, 2023, if none of the articles about the debate offer an opinion as to who won or lost, or if the debate is cancelled, then the market resolves to N/A.

NOTE: By these criteria, Nikki Haley was the winner of the August 23, 2023 debate and, if such a market had existed, that market would have resolved to YES.


RELATED MARKETS:

Exactly zero or one of the seven "Will X win the September 27 debate" questions will resolve to YES.

PROP BETS ON THIS DEBATE:


RESOLUTION: Two articles mentioned "winners" on CNN.com on September 28, and the winners were Haley and Trump.

However, the resolution criteria state that the most prominent article will be used for resolution. The following headline appeared on CNN's homepage for several hours on the morning of September 28. Trump's reference to being a "winner" was therefore more prominent than Haley's, and this is the only market out of all the linked markets related to this debate to resolve to YES.

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RESOLUTION: Two articles mentioned "winners" on CNN.com on September 28, and the winners were Haley and Trump.

However, the resolution criteria state that the most prominent article will be used for resolution. A headline appeared on CNN's homepage mentioning trump as the winner for several hours on the morning of September 28. Trump's reference to being a "winner" was therefore more prominent than Haley's, and this is the only market out of all the linked markets related to this debate to resolve to YES.

predicted YES

I think this can be resolved to YES

Unrelated to the CNN poll, but for some reason, people seem to like Ron in the debates, but every person on Twitter including myself found him to be extremely lacking

@dittopoop maybe it's just a reflection of the numbers below. Desantis is just more popular than the other candidates.

@cc6 Not much time left for something new to be posted. It is a race against the clock now.

I'm always amazed at how wrong these debate winner markets are. This one got bid down to 5% - someone got "rich" off it.

@SteveSokolowski I bought it all the way up from like 5% to 50%. The article declaring him as a winner was there for a while. I was shocked why nobody bought this up.

I feel like most of my profits come frpm noticing some change in a market that other people forgot about.

predicted NO

@Shump good work

OK, this is a weird situation, because it was never considered that the headline of an article would so clearly state something that was not contained in the text of the article. That article posted below does not contain the word "win" in the body text at all.

But given how blatantly obvious it was, I suggest that the default decision is now YES, except if there is another article confirming the formats in the question text (like "winner and losers") that states who won the debate in the body text, is equally prominent, and definitively contradicts the headline that's already been posted.

As the question states, this article could be published any time during the remainder of the day, so it appears people are now betting to see whether the clock will run out before anything else gets published.

predicted YES

@SteveSokolowski I think this is the correct way to resolve this, and the questions can be modified for next time so that the headline counts in the future.

predicted YES

@SteveSokolowski The headline to that article, until at least yesterday until like 1am PDT said directly that Trump won. That includes Sep 28 although the article was posted on 27th. Not sure why they changed it.

I think this N/As if that article is still prominent tomorrow, they removed the part about trump winning from the article? Idk

@jacksonpolack He's the only one they ever refer to as a winner, I think it's trump

The description specifically references 'The most prominently featured article about the debate' ... 'posted on Sep 28th', and I assume the creator will look at the title when he wakes up. idk

@jacksonpolack I'm going to intentionally avoid commenting in this and the related questions until I've gotten my head around what's been written and have resolved some other prop bets. If you want to make an argument, please save images of the text and the headline.

fun fact: my YES buy 20s ago was entirely following genzy, unsure about object-level beyond that

predicted YES

@jacksonpolack That’s probably a bad move, I think I’m going to finish last in masters league 🥲

Accidentally had entered the wrong date on this market - August 28 - so I changed it to Sep 28 and reopened it.

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