This market will resolve to YES if my opinion of the effective altruism movement, or the movement that succeeds it and most closely follows its ideals, is more positive than negative on December 31, 2024.
Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.
I will resolve the market based entirely on my opinion and there are no factual criteria, although I'll explain my reasoning at the time of resolution. I also won't express my views in this market's comments, nor will I bet on it, to avoid bias.
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Not being glib, just prone to literal-mindedness. In my experience dubbing yourself "effective" anything is tempting fate. Like announcing your event as the "First Annual." Saddling yourself needlessly with expectation.
I heard about "the EA community" couple months ago in the SBF context from people I respect. They were a little surprised I was not up on it. I said I was still not getting it, no one is for ineffective altruism, come on!
That said, after having randomly bumbled over the EA Community here while I was doing something else, I can see the intelligence and earnestness, I have put a small effort into educating myself. But I haven't seen yet much in the way of trying to balance what we called in the Before Times "theory and praxis". The perfect looks to be well on its way to becoming the enemy of the good. Also sure looks to me like there are some loving a thing that won't love them back.
I hope this may be helpful.
@ClubmasterTransparent what do you think would be a better name for the movement? And do you think the movement should have a different name from the general philosophy/aim they aspire towards?
@ClubmasterTransparent re issue of balancing theory with praxis, if you accept the claims of EA, they have already saved around 200,000 lives
Bettors might benefit from reading this: /SteveSokolowski/will-a-compelling-argument-defendin
@CamillePerrin This market is ridiculously high. I'd give OP a <10% chance of updating in a positive direction