Will I have a positive view of effective altruism on December 31, 2024?
23
1kṀ1718
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
N/A

This market will resolve to YES if my opinion of the effective altruism movement, or the movement that succeeds it and most closely follows its ideals, is more positive than negative on December 31, 2024.

Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.

I will resolve the market based entirely on my opinion and there are no factual criteria, although I'll explain my reasoning at the time of resolution. I also won't express my views in this market's comments, nor will I bet on it, to avoid bias.

  • Update 2025-01-01 (PST): - Resolution Update:

    • The market will be resolved to N/A.

    • The creator is unable to provide their opinion due to legal constraints. (AI summary of creator comment)

AI
Politics
US Politics
AI Alignment
Effective Altruism
AI risk
Charity
Change my view
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will Destiny be an effective altruist by the end of 2025?
11% chance
Will the Effective Altruism movement continue to exist in 2035?
75% chance
Will the effective altruism movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?
66% chance
In 100 years, will Effective Altruism be broadly seen as a beneficial movement by our (human) descendants?
73% chance
Will I be happier in 2025 than 2024?
45% chance
Will a U.S. House Representative, Senator, or President/Vice President self identify as an effective altruist by the end of 2030?
36% chance
Will I conclude, at the end of 2025, that this year has been better than 2024?
50% chance
Will Mr. Beast self-identify as an effective altruist by end of 2030?
10% chance
Will there be an effective altruist on the moon before 2035
13% chance
Will I still be bitter and cynical about my own aging by the end of 2035?
51% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy