This market will resolve if Earth's yearly average temperature is 1.5C or above by late 2028. These datasets will be used to determine whether this market resolves:
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/noaa-global-temp
1,000People are also trading
Average over 30 years? or some other number of years?
Or is it a single year annual average?
Compared to what? Preindustrial? If preindustrial, then what is the offset to 1971-2000 base base period?
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/noaa-global-surface-temperature/v6/access/timeseries/aravg.ann.land_ocean.90S.90N.v6.0.0.202503.asc
shows 0.98 for 2024 which per readme says "anomalies are based on the climatology from 1971 to 2000"
It is important to specify these details so bettor know what they are betting on. @SaiVazquez
@ChristopherRandles You're absolutely correct. I wish I had made this better. Do you think it would be better if I resolved this N/A?
@SaiVazquez I haven't bet but others have. Still not a lot of volume so I don't see much wrong with just clarifying it to what you intended. But if you prefer then N/A also seems ok, either with or without a new clearer market. Basically as you wish.