Will Earth's average yearly temperature be 1.5 degrees by late 2028?

Ṁ110Ṁ163

resolved Jan 2

Resolved

N/A

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This market will resolve if Earth's yearly average temperature is 1.5C or above by late 2028. These datasets will be used to determine whether this market resolves:

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/noaa-global-temp

Update 2026-01-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has resolved this market to N/A, which cancels the market and returns all mana to traders. The market will not resolve based on the temperature data sources originally specified.

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Hey, I got bogged down in other things and forgot about this market. So I'm resolving this N/A because I am simply not equipped to handle this market right now. I apologize for shitty resolution standard and I will do better in the future

Do you mean 1.5C above preindustrial levels?

Average over 30 years? or some other number of years?
Or is it a single year annual average?

Compared to what? Preindustrial? If preindustrial, then what is the offset to 1971-2000 base base period?
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/noaa-global-surface-temperature/v6/access/timeseries/aravg.ann.land_ocean.90S.90N.v6.0.0.202503.asc
shows 0.98 for 2024 which per readme says "anomalies are based on the climatology from 1971 to 2000"

It is important to specify these details so bettor know what they are betting on. @SaiVazquez

@ChristopherRandles You're absolutely correct. I wish I had made this better. Do you think it would be better if I resolved this N/A?

@SaiVazquez I haven't bet but others have. Still not a lot of volume so I don't see much wrong with just clarifying it to what you intended. But if you prefer then N/A also seems ok, either with or without a new clearer market. Basically as you wish.