If there is substantial disagreement across sources as to whether global greenhouse gas emissions were lower in 2025 than in 2024, question resolution will defer to Our World in Data: https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions
Jan. 2026 edit: I expect this question will be resolvable based on Climate TRACE estimates released on Feb. 26, 2026.
See also:
Update 2026-02-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve NO based on Climate TRACE data showing global greenhouse gas emissions hit a new record high in 2025 (meaning 2025 emissions were higher than 2024, so the answer to "will 2025 be lower than 2024" is NO - this appears to be the creator indicating resolution to NO).
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It surprises me that it seems like nobody else is thinking "if Trump does something stupid that torpedoes the US/global economy, greenhouse gas emissions will probably fall". That's why I've been betting yes recently.