Will any 1 or more of the following events happen in 2025?
Inflation > 6%
No taxes < $150k
Stagflation
Recession
Social unrest
https://polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-inflation-get-in-2025
https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-remove-taxes-on-income-150k 9
https://polymarket.com/event/us-stagflation-in-2025
https://polymarket.com/event/us-recession-in-2025
https://manifold.markets/BrunoJ/will-there-be-major-social-unrest-i 20
Some of these 5 markets are correlated.
4 of them are Yes/No.
How high will inflation get, must be above 6% to be considered Yes.
They will close by January 2026.
The outcome of this question will be determined by the outcome of these 5 markets.
Update 2025-06-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator confirmed that Q4 2025 economic data (expected January 2026) will be considered when evaluating the Recession condition. Additionally, the creator noted that for this market's purposes, stagflation includes recession. This implies the Recession condition can also be met if the linked Stagflation market resolves YES.
Update 2025-06-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will select a new market in August to determine the Social unrest condition, replacing the one originally linked in the description.
1,000