This market resolves primarily based on data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data's US Crisis Monitor.
https://acleddata.com/us-crisis-monitor/.
Qualitative information from the FBI/DHS's Strategic Intelligence Assessment and Data on Domestic Terrorism report for 2025 (released mid 2026) will be considered as well: https://www.dhs.gov/publication/strategic-intelligence-assessment-and-data-domestic-terrorism
Finally the Anti-Defamation League's "Murder and Extremism in the United States" report or 2025 will be considered:
https://www.adl.org/resources/report/murder-and-extremism-united-states-2024.
Combining these sources into a resolution of this question requires waiting until mid 2026 to resolve. I am attempting to make the answer to this pretty objective, but in the case of ambiguity or conflicting data from these sources I reserve the right to use my judgement. I will do my best to reach a resolution but if I feel unable to do this fairly the market will resolve to invalid.
I will not bet on this market until after the end of 2025.
EDIT: Some clarification regarding what constitutes violence for the purposes of this market. Peaceful protests will not be considered as political violence, riots will be considered, but will be weighted less that political violence which results in deaths. Example: something like the No Kings protest, which was huge but mostly peaceful, only contributes to the resolution of this question in so far as small parts devolved into violence.
Update 2026-04-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Data source availability issues may affect resolution:
The DHS report (Strategic Intelligence Assessment) may not be available due to funding issues
ACLED has changed to monthly reporting, which may have obscured historical annual data
Resolution will depend heavily on the ADL annual report if the other sources remain unavailable
Market may resolve to N/A if insufficient data is available to resolve fairly
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ46 | |
| 2 | Ṁ39 | |
| 3 | Ṁ29 | |
| 4 | Ṁ13 | |
| 5 | Ṁ13 |
Explanation of my resolution (I pulled the data that was available from ACLED and had Claude do some data analysis and produce this:)
Resolving this market to "Instances of political violence increase significantly." Of the three sources named in the description, only ACLED produced usable 2025 data: the FBI/DHS Strategic Intelligence Assessment has not been published since the June 2023 edition, and I could not find a 2025 edition of ADL's Murder and Extremism report. I pulled ACLED's US data for 2024 and 2025 on 2026-09-11, counting Violent demonstration, Mob violence, Violence against civilians, Battles, and Explosions/Remote violence, and excluding peaceful protests, protests with police intervention, property destruction with no demonstration attached, and the strikes on boats in the North Atlantic (which ACLED files outside the US). On that basis, total instances fell from 198 to 172 (−13%) while fatalities rose from 33 to 56 (+70%).
The decline is entirely in Mob violence (88 → 47); every other category held or rose, and the non-riot categories together went from 43 to 50 (+16%). The description stated that riots would be weighted less than violence resulting in deaths, and 2025 was the year of the Hortman assassination, the Kirk assassination, the DC embassy shooting, the New Orleans attack, and the National Guard ambush. Under that weighting, a year with fewer scuffles but substantially more and deadlier targeted attacks is an increase, not a decrease. This is corroborated by START's T2V dataset, which recorded a 34.5% rise in terrorism and targeted violence events through August 2025 versus the same period in 2024, and by Princeton's Bridging Divides Initiative 2025 review, which reached the same conclusion. I recognize the raw instance count points the other way, and I've laid out the numbers so anyone can check the reasoning, but I think "increase" is the resolution most faithful to the criteria as written before trading.
DHS doesn't have funding and therefore doesn't have any report coming as far as I know. The ACLED seems to have changed there reporting methodology to monthly and in doing so hidden much of their old annual data. I'm keeping my🤞 that the ADL releases their annual report as they usually do, otherwise this is going to be hard to resolve fairly. It's also possible that I just need to dig deeper into the ACLED website in order to find the relevant data.