Will there be major social unrest in the USA by July 2025?
146
1kแน€40k
resolved Jul 1
Resolved
NO

Will there be some form of major social unrest in the USA by July 2025? Examples that would lead to a YES resolution include:

  • Widespread rioting leading to double-digit deaths

  • Armed insurrection

  • The January 6th insurrection

  • Organized terrorism

Things which would not count:

  • An assassination attempt perpetrated by a "lone wolf"

  • Generally speaking, isolated incidents of social unrest.

Due to the qualitative nature of the decision, I will not bet in this market.

  • Update 2025-06-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator specified their interpretation of organized terrorism for this market:

    • An act of terror committed by an organized terrorist cell composed of 3+ individuals.

    • An act of terror backed by a state.

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