Will there be some form of major social unrest in the USA by July 2025? Examples that would lead to a YES resolution include:

• Widespread rioting leading to double-digit deaths

• Armed insurrection

• The January 6th insurrection

• Organized terrorism

Things which would not count:

• An assassination attempt perpetrated by a "lone wolf"

• Generally speaking, isolated incidents of social unrest.

Due to the qualitative nature of the decision, I will not bet in this market.

• Update 2025-06-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator specified their interpretation of organized terrorism for this market:

  • An act of terror committed by an organized terrorist cell composed of 3+ individuals.

  • An act of terror backed by a state.