Will there be major social unrest in the USA by July 2025?
️ Politics🇺🇸 US Politics🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential ElectionTrumpSocial collapse
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Ṁ177
2025
24%
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Will there be some form of major social unrest in the USA by July 2025? Examples that would lead to a YES resolution include:

  • Widespread rioting leading to double-digit deaths

  • Armed insurrection

  • The January 6th insurrection

  • Organized terrorism

Things which would not count:

  • An assassination attempt perpetrated by a "lone wolf"

  • Generally speaking, isolated incidents of social unrest.

Due to the qualitative nature of the decision, I will not bet in this market.

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If Trump loses, I believe there will likely be unrest at least as significant as Jan 6.

bought Ṁ50 NO

So to be clear the BLM uprisings wouldn’t count?

They would not, in my opinion, constitute major social unrest, but pretty close. For the purpose of this question I would qualify the BLM protests/riots as moderate social unrest. Well on its way to major unrest, but not quite there yet.

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