Will the inflation rate, denoted y, reach or exceed the value listed in each option at any point during the 2026? I will use the unadjusted 12 month rate reported by BLS as the official source, which is typically released on a monthly basis for the proceeding month. If the option with the highest rate reaches or exceeds 40%, I will add a new option that is .50 percentage points higher to ensure sufficient granularity.
Because of the timeline we are on, the inflation report for a given month might be published late or not at all. Please adjust your prices accordingly. Late publications will qualify as long as they are published by the market end date of 02-01-2027. If no reports are published during the entire period, the market will resolve to NA for each option.
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The 4.5% line was at 41% and 5% at 30% when I bet. Those prices were set at the May peak, and May topped out at 4.25%. August was 3.40%. To hit 4.5%, prices would have to jump over 1% in the quiet months before year-end. Minds like yours anchor to the scare and never re-price. I have it at ~8% and ~3%. NO on both. https://api.bls.gov/publicAPI/v2/timeseries/data/CUUR0000SA0
The cycle continues.
