Will The Economist publish an article about Manifold Market or any other prediction market before 1st Feb 2024?

890Ṁ2211

resolved Dec 19

Resolved

YES

ALL

Creating this market as there is believe that The Economist like to publish prediction market articles in January.

Resolve YES:

if there is whole article dedicated to prediction markets (can be unrelated to any website, but just generaly to the topic)
if there is at least 10 sentences about prediction markets (can be unrelated to any website, but just generaly to the topic)

As this question will probably appear - article about stock exchange or other well known financial markets will not count as YES.

The article has to apear after 20th August 2023 and before 1st February 2024.

Articles which I found about prediction markets from The Economist:

The orginal market:

https://manifold.markets/StanisawKokocinski/will-the-economist-publish-an-artic-c9abcf7b890d

Will The Economist publish an article about Manifold Market or any other prediction market before 2024?

44% chance. Resolve YES: if there is whole article dedicated to prediction markets (can be unrelated to any website, but just generaly to the topic) if there is at least 10 sentences about prediction markets (can be unrelated to any website, but just generaly to the topic) As this question will probably appear - article about stock exchange or other well known financial markets will not count as YES. The article has to apear after 20th August 2023 and before 1st January 2024.

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https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2023/11/13/what-the-superforecasters-predict-for-major-events-in-2024

predictedNO

They are talking to journalist. This might be The Economist

https://manifold.markets/DavidChee/what-are-examples-of-clear-wins-pre?r=U3Rhbg

What are examples of clear wins prediction markets have had?

I've been speaking to some journalists, and it seems very important that we build a page that shows case studies of cherry picked events to build a track record of our site predicting events better than mainstream news/traditional forecasts (eg polls). We want to start proving prediction market accuracy through evidence (before we relied a lot on the theoretical backing of the mechanisms in our branding). Eg. something became true and we predicted a higher probability than most news. Even if they don't seem that statistically significant, still post them. The calibration and stats already show that overall we are accurate, but journalists and more casual viewers just want specific examples they can point to. I will vary bounty awards based on how strong I feel the evidence is and how likely I am to include it in our track record page. Feel free to also link to prediction market wins outside of Manifold Markets. Although I will prioritise wins of particular markets on our site. Some examples I am already aware of vaguely, but may still give bounties if you do a good job at describing them in more detail: -Predicting FTX implosion and SBF arrest related things -Predicting Ukraine invasion related things -2022 midterms

How much higher this should be than the original market?

predictedNO

@StanisawKokocinski now it is 20p.p. difference, I assume it is way too high as most likely editor which was making new years posts left (no post for 2023)