Resolve YES:
if there is whole article dedicated to prediction markets (can be unrelated to any website, but just generaly to the topic)
if there is at least 10 sentences about prediction markets (can be unrelated to any website, but just generaly to the topic)
As this question will probably appear - article about stock exchange or other well known financial markets will not count as YES.
The article has to apear after 20th August 2023 and before 1st January 2024.
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@Stan the user who posted the Economist link below agrees that the Good Judgement Project isn't a prediction market, but they thought you intended to include all websites that aggregate predictions under "prediction markets". Is that correct?
If not, it's no problem, and we can ask a moderator to reverse resolution and reopen the question. Let us know!
@Stan I'm pretty sure this is a misresolution, the economist article does not mention 'prediction markets', I suggest you unresolve!
@jacksonpolack I am pretty sure you guys made the wrong assumption. The creator was using “prediction market” to represent any crowd sourced forecasts. That was clear to me.
I don't think that's true. Just the term 'market' implies that you can exchange something at a price, which you can't do on a forecasting website where you use probabilities, but you can on a prediction market.
Wikipedia says
Prediction markets, also known as betting markets, information markets, decision markets, idea futures or event derivatives, are open markets that enable the prediction of specific outcomes using financial incentives. They are exchange-traded markets established for trading bets in the outcome of various events
@BTE that's their prerogative, though if so the resolution criteria could have been better. But I suspect they just resolved on your comment without considering the distinction (or perhaps not realising the GJP doesn't involve markets). Hopefully they clarify.
Metaculus is an American reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine.[1]
@Joshua @NicoDelon I just remembered that essay Gaia wrote. Thanks for sharing right on time.
Good Judgement is not a prediction market. It aggregates probability forecasts and scores via brier scores.
@Gabrielle Crowd sourced predictions is a prediction market. There is just no play money incentives.
@BTE Where does the "market" aspect come from, then? I don't see anything on Metaculus that looks like a "market", you can't buy or sell shares, just record forecasts. I thought GJP was similar in that regard.
@BTE That’s not true. They’re a prediction aggregator, not a prediction market. See for example, this paper that contrasts them and Metaculus with Kalshi and Polymarket: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.18006.pdf
I am mana constrained but you guys should pounce! @NicoDelon @firstuserhere @Joshua @SemioticRivalry @chrisjbillington
