At the beginning of 2026, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

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resolved Jan 15

Resolved

ALL

See base market: /ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener

IE "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

On Jan 1st, 2026, I'll try to ask @ScottAlexander if he thinks such a capability already exists. If he's unavailable/unwilling to adjudicate, I'll defer to my best understanding of the criteria. I reserve the right to resolve N/A or wait until Scott clarifies the criteria if there is significant ambiguity. I won't bet in this market (but I may in the other one).

Update 2026-01-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is proceeding with resolution based on their best understanding of the criteria (as @ScottAlexander was unavailable to weigh in). The market will resolve NO - no coherent hour-plus AI generated movie of studio quality (or otherwise) has been observed as of the resolution date.

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@ScottAlexander are you interested in weighing in here? No issues if not.

@traders I'm going to fall back to "my best understanding of the criteria" as specified in the description, which to me is a clear NO. I have not seen any example of a coherent hour-plus AI generated "movie", studio quality or not.

Let me know if you have serious objections.