Will 26 or more people put in a prediction on this market?
Bots don't count towards the total. If I predict, I do count.
I may close this market early if the answer is YES but I won't extend the close date if the answer is NO.
This is the latest version of this market - each time the target increases by one so it should be a bit less of a certain thing.
@MpP has set up a meta-market about these market iterations here:
Here's how the previous markets went:
Six or more? Target hit in 7 minutes
Seven or more? Target hit in 1 hour 37 minutes
Eight or more? Target hit in 2 hours 12 minutes
Nine or more? Target hit in 12 hours and 8 minutes
Ten or more? Target hit in 29 minutes
11 or more? Target hit in 1 hour 32 minutes
12 or more? Target hit in 4 hours 14 minutes
13 or more? Target hit in 15 hours 35 minutes
14 or more? Target hit in 12 hours 33 minutes
15 or more? Target hit in 28 hours 47 minutes. This time five non-bot users had positions on NO at the end - the first time that so many people thought that the target might not be hit!
16 or more? Target hit in 6 hours 41 minutes - significantly faster than the previous three iterations!
17 or more? Target hit in 13 hours 59 minutes
18 or more? Target hit in 23 hours 28 minutes
19 or more? Target hit in 14 hours 59 minutes
20 or more? Target hit in 21 hours 51 minutes
21 or more? Target hit in 19 hours 14 minutes - now with six people holding NO positions at close!
22 or more? Target hit in 13 hours 23 minutes
23 or more? Target hit in 5 hours 4 minutes - the quickest since 12!
24 or more? Target hit in 17 hours 30 minutes
25 or more? Target hit in 22 hours 18 minutes - the slowest since 18
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ138 | |
| 2 | Ṁ43 | |
| 3 | Ṁ16 | |
| 4 | Ṁ10 | |
| 5 | Ṁ9 |
Its getting real wobbly currently :D probanly a consequence of people bidding it up so fast, therefore leading to loss of interest for bidding. However, now thinking about it, this could go on for quite a bit, since with an increasing amount of possible predictors, ammount of no bettors will also increase.
@MpP It’s a fun paradox - bidding the price up to 98% when it seems like a sure thing gives people less incentive to bet so it makes it less likely to hit (or hit as quickly).
But when it looks like it’s not going to happen and the price gets lower, that also gives people a reason to bet and becomes a self-defeating prophesy!
@SimonGrayson 98% yes is a strong incentive to bet no, juts for the risk/reward, that's the fun paradox ^^
https://manifold.markets/seaton/will-this-market-have-100-or-more-u
Something a little more ambitious, if anyone is interested