Kevin McCarthy has been removed as the Speaker of the US House of Representatives.

Who will be the next Speaker?

• This market will resolve to the name of the next person to permanently take the role of the Speaker. An acting Speaker, a temporary Speaker or anyone who fills in so that a Speaker can be elected will not be counted (unless they go on to become the permanent speaker)

• If Kevin McCarthy is elected speaker again, the market will resolve to him rather than his future successor

• This is a free response market so please add anyone who you think should be in the conversation. Every additional response should be the name of one single person - please don't add something like "a black woman" or "there won't be a speaker this year" as the market will only resolve to the name of one single person!

• If the next Speaker is someone who is not listed by name in any of the options, the market will resolve to "Other". If you want to trade individual options now that this market has hit the limit of 100 options, you can do so here - /SimonGrayson/who-will-be-the-next-speaker-of-the-6001b2fb6f64

• The market will not resolve to any of the answers which are not a person's name such as "No one till next Congress" or "old white dude". If you bet on those options, you will lose your Mana.

Update 13th October - because a couple of people have asked, I wanted to clarify what will happen if the House simply can't choose a Speaker.

• This market will resolve to the next Speaker of the House, no matter how long that takes. If there is no Speaker for the next year and a half, the market will resolve to the first Speaker after the 2024 election. Or the 2026 election.

• Patrick McHenry is currently the Speaker pro tempore. If he starts to carry out House business or is granted more of the powers of Speaker, this market will not resolve to him unless he formally becomes the Speaker of the House.

While we're waiting, there are a lot of other markets on the Speaker race. You can see them all here but here are a few markets on what happens next and how long we're going to be waiting:

/SimonGrayson/when-will-the-first-house-vote-for

/zzlk/how-long-will-the-house-be-without

/KnowNothing/who-will-be-speaker-of-the-house-on

Update 20th October - the chaos has got so bad that this market has hit the 100 option limit. Named members of the house are trading below 0.1% and Manifold have had to change their UI to hide the dozens of hopeless options!

If none of the listed options becomes the next Speaker, this market will resolve to "Other". If you want to trade further options within Other, you can do so here:

/SimonGrayson/who-will-be-the-next-speaker-of-the-6001b2fb6f64