Who will be Speaker of the House on December 1?
➕
Plus
159
Ṁ130k
resolved Dec 1
100%99.5%
Mike Johnson
0.0%
Kevin McCarthy
0.0%
Donald Trump
0.1%
Nobody
0.0%
Patrick McHenry
0.0%
Tom Emmer
0.1%
Jim Jordan
0.1%
Steve Scalise
0.0%
Elise Stefanik
0.0%
Kevin Hern
0.0%
Byron Donalds
0.0%
Hakeem Jeffries
0.0%
Austin Scott
0.0%
Moderate R in coalition w/ D’s
0.0%
Morgan Griffith
0.0%
Chip Roy
0.0%
Jack Bergman
0.0%
Jodey Arrington
0.0%
Dan Meuser
0.0%
Mark Green

"Speaker pro tempore" does not count.

Edit: To clarify, the answer needs to be a single name (except in the case of "Nobody" and "Other"). So "Moderate R in coalition w/ D’s" is ineligible.

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Anyone looking for a more exciting day to day speaker marker:

This will be low-key hilarious if the new Speaker lasts less than three ‘mooches.

@KnowNothing For those who followed the initiator of the choice “Moderate R…” before you excluded this option, what is the fair resolution, N/A, and return of mana, for those participants, since your ex-post rule invalidates the bet to N/A (no way to win or lose)?

@PGeyer I don't see an option to mark just one option as N/A without closing out the whole market. If there's a way to do that please let me know how and I'll do it.

@KnowNothing It's not possible.

@jack gotcha, that's what i thought

@PGeyer sorry, but i'm going to keep the market open and would recommend that people sell any "Moderate R in coalition w/ D’s" YES shares they have. I think anyone who bought those shares had to have known there was a good chance it wasn't a legitimate option for this market to resolve to. It's just one step away from someone just adding "A Republican" or "A person" as an option.

@jack @KnowNothing Thank you both. I also found that out, and so closed my position at a loss. Live and learn. It’s buyer beware when added choices are permitted, since I could not distinguish a choice someone else created vs one the market question creator had initially.

In my short experience, I’ve been cautious, not letting others add choices, since this situation is foreseeable and unresolvable. It sacrifices being able to enjoy a fun if crazy market like you’ve beautifully done, though!

Perhaps the app designers could highlight new vs original choices, the void-at-inception trade risk lying in the former, since there is no trade reversal feature. Unlike conventional markets, reversing a trade here would conceivably perturb the whole probability pricing scheme retroactively. That would be bad, right 😂 ? Good luck and enjoy!

@jack @KnowNothing Jack, you are my witness…I’ve got to share with you something extraordinary about KnowNothinng. He just sent me 21 mana making me fully whole, out of his own pocket. I was completely happy with our resolution before this kindness. That was unsolicited, unexpected and truly a sign of being raised well. I’d send it back in appreciation, but it would only insult you. I will accept your gift, KnowNothing. You must be a joy to know in real life. You both take care.

Moderate R in coalition w/ D’s

For those who followed the initiator of the choice “Moderate R…” before you excluded this option, what is the fair resolution, N/A, and return of mana, for those participants, since it was not a valid choice (no bet made), ex post?

For those who followed the initiator of the choice “Moderate R…” before you excluded this option, what is the fair resolution, N/A, and return of mana, for those participants, since it was not a valid choice (no bet made), ex post?

arbing

Kevin McSharty will be back !!!

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