How long will the US House be without a speaker?
471
12kṀ140k
resolved Oct 25
100%98.5%
3 weeks: 10/24 - 10/30
0.0%
0 weeks: 10/03 - 10/09
0.1%
1 week: 10/10 - 10/16
0.2%
2 weeks: 10/17 - 10/23
0.6%
4 weeks: 10/31 - 11/06
0.1%
5 weeks: 11/07 - 11/13
0.0%
6 weeks: 11/14 - 11/20
0.0%
7 weeks: 11/21 - 11/27
0.0%
8 weeks: 11/28 - 12/04
0.0%
9 weeks: 12/05 - 12/11
0.0%
10 weeks: 12/12 - 12/18
0.3%Other

Following McCarthy's ousting on October 3rd, the house is now paralyzed and without a speaker. How long will it be until a new speaker is elected?

I've started the counter from the day that McCarthy was ousted. This means that October 3rd is the first day the house was without a speaker, October 4th is the second day without a speaker, ..., October 9th is the 7th day without a speaker, and so on.

If they elect someone on the 10/09 then a full week hasn't passed, so it would be 0 weeks. If they elect someone on 10/10, then a full week has passed, and so it would be 1 week.

I hope that's not too confusing.

As time goes on and Other becomes more popular, I will split out new weeks. I will also extend the closing time as necessary until a new house speaker is elected.

Update 2023-10-19:

People have asked what will happen if the house expands the powers of the speaker pro tempore. I will apply the same criteria as in this market: https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/who-will-be-the-next-speaker-of-the-0b49bf53ad12?r=enpsaw

That is to say, until a speaker is elected the usual way, this market will not resolve.

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