Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the number of seats won by "Your Party" in the next UK general election. The official results, as published by the UK Electoral Commission, will determine the outcome. The market will resolve to the answer corresponding to the seat range that includes the total number of seats won by "Your Party." For example, if "Your Party" wins 10 seats, the market will resolve to the "9-13" option.

Question title will be changed if the party changes its name. Question will resolve to 0 if the party runs no candidates in the next general election.

Background

The next UK general election is scheduled to be held no later than 21 August 2029. (en.wikipedia.org) "Your Party" is a newly formed political entity led by Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana. Recent polling indicates that "Your Party" has garnered approximately 6% support among voters. (en.wikipedia.org) In the 2024 general election, smaller parties collectively received 42.6% of the total vote, highlighting a growing trend toward alternative political options. (en.wikipedia.org)

Considerations

Given the first-past-the-post electoral system used in UK general elections, translating national vote share into parliamentary seats can be challenging for smaller parties. The distribution of "Your Party's" support across constituencies will significantly influence their ability to secure seats. Additionally, the political landscape is dynamic, and factors such as campaign effectiveness, candidate selection, and regional issues may impact "Your Party's" performance in the upcoming election.