This market resolves to the four largest parties by number of seats in the UK House of Commons following the next UK general election after the July 2024 election. Answers should have the form A > B > C > D, where A is the party with the most seats, B is the party with the second-highest number of seats, and so on. Note that this may not correspond to the four parties with the most votes, due to the UK's first-past-the-post electoral system.

If there is a tie, this market will resolve to PROB, with all answers that are a valid order resolving equally (e.g. if the two largest parties A and B have the same number of seats, and parties C and D are the next largest and also tied, then four answers will resolve to 25% each, i.e. A > B > C > D; B > A > C > D; A > B > D > C; and B > A > D > C).

Here are the top-four parties by seats for every election since 2000:

2024 election: Labour > Conservative > Lib Dem > SNP

2019 election: Conservative > Labour > SNP > Lib Dem

2017 election: Conservative > Labour > SNP > Lib Dem

2015 election: tie between Conservative > Labour > SNP > Lib Dem and Conservative > Labour > SNP > DUP

2010 election: Conservative > Labour > Lib Dem > DUP

2005 election: Labour > Conservative > Lib Dem > DUP

2001 election: Labour > Conservative > Lib Dem > UUP