How many seats will centre to centre-left parties have in the UK House of Commons on January 1st 2030?
1
225Ṁ45
2030
329 seats
expected
10%
0 - 200
16%
200 - 249
22%
250 - 299
15%
300 - 349
10%
350 - 399
10%
400 - 449
10%
450 - 500
10%
500 - 650

Currently, Wikipedia lists the following parties as centre to centre left:

  • Labour

  • Liberal Democrats

  • Scottish National Party

  • Green Party

  • Plaid Cymru

  • SDLP

  • Alliance Party

New parties that are considered to be centre to centre-left may be added to this list at my discretion; I will also evaluate independent candidates.

Sinn Féin is excluded from this list because of their abstentionism.

If this market was resolved at the time of creation, it would resolve between 504 and 507 (399 Labour + 72 Liberal Democrats + 9 Scottish National Party + 4 Green Party + 4 Plaid Cymru + 2 SDLP + 1 Alliance + 13-16 independents)

Elections
Elections: World
UK politics
UK
Labour Party (UK)
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Which party will the Prime Minister of the UK be from on January 1st 2030?
How many seats will Reform UK win at the next general election?
158
Will the UK have Proportional Representation of the House of Commons by 2030?
21% chance
What will be the distribution of seats after the next UK General Election?
In the next UK General Election [Likely 2029] which parties will gain seats?
Will a new UK political party gain 50+ seats by the end of 2028? (In the house of commons)
13% chance
How many seats will "Your Party" win at the next UK general election?
How many seats will the UK Labour Party win at the next general election?
How many seats will Labour win at the next general election?
241
How many seats will the UK Conservative Party win at the next general election?
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy