Will Trump "Be a dictator on day 1" if elected?
55
1kṀ3493
resolved Feb 19
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if during his first day in office, Trump does actions that are both:

  • Widely regarded as undemocratic by mainstream media sources.

  • Get challenged in courts.

N/A if Trump doesn't get elected.

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I'm thinking of resolving No, here's why:

  • Pinged the creator multiple times -- both on Manifold and Discord.

  • I performed a broad web search using multiple tools, looking for any mainstream sources that declared Trump's actions from Day One as "undemocratic".

  • I found some smaller outlets that mentioned "threatening democracy" and similar, but truly mainstream sources avoided this language.

  • The market description requires this to be widely regarded and I don't see any evidence his day 1 actions reached this level.

  • Maybe some of his day 1 actions are being challenged in courts, I do not know, but it doesn't matter if the media did not widely report that these actions were undemocratic.

@Eliza The best claim I found is some sources citing PROTECTING THE MEANING AND VALUE OF AMERICAN CITIZENSHIP as being "unconstitutional" but I'm not sure that is the same as "undemocratic"?

I see the Washington Post published this quote, regarding that order:

“This is hallmark Trump, doing what he wants, when he wants, how he wants, the U.S. Constitution be damned,” said California Attorney General Rob Bonta (D) in an interview Monday. “That’s not how it works in our democracy.”

Is that the same as the Washington Post regarding it as undemocratic, or is it just the California Attorney General Rob Bonta doing that?

NY Times said this:

a dramatic rejection of rights that have been part of the Constitution for more than 150 years.

Still not sure this is the same as saying "undemocratic".....

@Eliza maybe some Yes @traders can provide better sources to back their position

@Eliza I'm a yes trader and think it's too thin to resolve as Yes. Oke with No

@Eliza When you made this market, what was the spirit or definition you loaded into the word "undemocratic"?

Resolves YES if during his first day in office, Trump does actions that are both:

  • Widely regarded as undemocratic by mainstream media sources.

  • Get challenged in courts.

Oops, you didn't make the market. I guess it's the OP definition.

We could ask our LLM overlords what their opinions are? I don't know, this feels ambiguous to me and could largely be interpreted based on the politics of the trader. Is N/A viable? (I hold a YES position and am biased.)

@Quroe I'm kind of stalling hoping @Shump shows up but no other moderators have been intervening so I feel like we need to make some progress. I don't think this will need to be N/A...the status of "widely reported" seems fairly objective. Yes holders should be able to provide 4+ mainstream sources that make matching claims and then we can look at it.

@Eliza I think the conditions in the description are rather strict, using AND logic to link the 2 bullet points with the word "both".

Resolves YES if during his first day in office, Trump does actions that are both:

  • Widely regarded as undemocratic by mainstream media sources.

  • Get challenged in courts.

Even just doing a Google Search for '"undemocratic" Trump' with the first word in quotes to force that word to appear in the results and filtering for only results for pages that show up on Jan 20th, I come up a bit dry. But this is not an exhaustive attempt to prove the YES position.

I pass the torch to anybody else who wants to take the mantle.

@mods putting this in the queue

@Shump resolve?

Does "get challenged in court" necessitate an active lawsuit, or do threats/potential lawsuits count?

bought Ṁ50 YES

"Widely regarded as undemocratic by mainstream media sources.

Get challenged in courts."

This is like a normal day for Trump

Would something like this be enough to count as YES?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_travel_ban

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