Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if the specified individual is officially sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel (leading a new permanent government or in an official rotation agreement) succeeding incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

• If this market asks about a specific candidate in a binary (Yes/No) format, it resolves to YES if that person becomes the next prime minister, and NO if anyone else is sworn in as prime minister first.

• If Benjamin Netanyahu succeeds himself by successfully forming the next governing coalition, this market will resolve to whether the named individual becomes the prime minister following the eventual end of Netanyahu's tenure, unless the market creator specifies a specific deadline or government term. (Market creators should edit to clarify if the market applies specifically to the formation of the 38th government).

• Serving solely in a temporary, interim, or caretaker capacity without the Knesset swearing in a new government (or without confirmation as prime minister under the Basic Law: The Government) will not trigger resolution unless that person is subsequently formally sworn in.

• The primary source of truth will be the official announcements of the Knesset and the Prime Minister's Office, corroborated by consensus reporting from major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press).

Background

Benjamin Netanyahu has served as Prime Minister of Israel since December 2022, leading the 37th government. Under Israel’s parliamentary system, the prime minister must form a governing coalition that commands the confidence of at least 61 members of the 120-seat Knesset.

Following national elections or the collapse of a sitting coalition, the President of Israel consults with elected party leaders and tasks a Knesset member with forming a government. Recent Israeli politics has featured recurring coalition instability, rotation prime minister agreements (such as the Bennett–Lapid government), and fierce competition between the right-wing religious bloc and disparate opposition coalitions.

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