Israel's 2026 Knesset election (October 27) left no bloc with 61 seats: final Central Elections Committee results gave Netanyahu's bloc 53, Gadi Eisenkot's bloc 48 and Arab parties 19. President Herzog gave Eisenkot the mandate to form a government on November 8, 2026. He has 28 days (to about December 6), plus a possible 14-day extension (to about December 20). If he fails, the mandate can pass to another MK or the Knesset, and the process can end in new elections.

This market asks: on what date does Israel's next government win its Knesset confidence vote (the vote that swears in the new government)?

Answers (Israel time):

• By December 6, 2026

• December 7 to December 20, 2026

• December 21 to December 31, 2026

• 2027 or later (including if new elections are called, or no new government is sworn in during 2026)

Resolution: the date of the Knesset vote approving the new government, as reported by the Knesset (main.knesset.gov.il), The Times of Israel, Reuters or AP. A caretaker government continuing does not count. A rotation or reshuffle inside the current caretaker government does not count; it must be a new government approved by a Knesset confidence vote after this election. Whoever leads it (Eisenkot, Netanyahu or anyone else) does not matter.

Sources for background: Al Jazeera on the final count (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/29/israel-election-result-shows-no-overall-majority-as-vote-count-complete), JPost live updates on the mandate (https://www.jpost.com/israel-election-2026/2026-11-08/live-updates-914159).

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