Resolution criteria

This market resolves based on which of the listed parties are members of the next officially sworn-in Israeli government (the 38th government of Israel) following the 26th Knesset elections.

Each option resolves independently:

• YES: The party is a formal signatory to the coalition agreement and officially part of the governing coalition when the new government passes its Knesset vote of confidence and is sworn into office.

• NO: The party is in the opposition or is not a formal member of the coalition at the time the government is sworn in. Providing outside support (confidence and supply) without being a formal member of the governing coalition does not count.

The official source of truth will be the Knesset official records and government announcements. If no new government is formed and another election is called, this market will remain open until a government is successfully formed and sworn in, or resolve based on the government formed after subsequent elections.

Background

Following the general election for the 26th Knesset, coalition math left both the right-wing bloc led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud and the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot's centrist Yashar party short of a 61-seat majority.

The four listed options represent key potential coalition partners or leaders:

• Likud: The incumbent right-wing ruling party led by Benjamin Netanyahu.

• Yashar: The centrist party founded by former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot.

• Joint List: An alliance of predominantly Arab-majority parties led by Yousef Jabareen.

• Ra'am (United Arab List): The Islamist party led by Mansour Abbas, which previously made history by joining the Bennett-Lapid coalition in 2021.

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