Only direct, violent deaths count, so no starvation or death from a lack of medical care (unless the ailment in question was the result of Israeli violence)
1,000People are also trading
@Athena I disagree, not on whether they will kill more civilians, but on whether a Manifold market about it is wrong. I think that things like this ground the reality of the situation.
@Balasar at the end of the day, you are profiting (now fake money, thankfully) off of people being killed by betting YES here. That inherently rubs me the wrong way.
@Athena Yeah I absolutely get what you mean. But its not like betting is making the atrocities worse so I still bet. Your choice is your choice, do whatever you feel best doing.
@Athena Or would we be denying those same deaths that have frankly already happened by voting No? My assumption is that by denying a situation like this, there is more chance that a market could be used to argue that people don't believe that many people have been killed so there is no need to pressure the two sides for peace. Given the reported 1599 dead since the oct 2025 cease fire it seems reasonable to assume we are well passed 1000 in 2026 other than the difficulties establishing facts with the Israeli ban on journalists. The ongoing damage/bulldozing of the vast majority (82%) of buildings in gaza particularly evidenced by every satellite or drone image, I think this might be a severe under estimate of the death toll in 2026 ( although for this 2026 market much of that had already happened it must all have an impact on the survivability of homelessness in gaza with little or no clean water. The recent reports suggested Israel has attacked Gaza on 354 out of the past 390 days of the ceasefire, meaning there were only 36 days during which no violent attacks, deaths or injuries were reported. Most of these genuine cease fire days were in 2025, meaning 2026 has been busier than usual.