Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve when Wikipedia removes Gaza from its "list of genocides" pages and stops identifying it as a genocide. Then all dates after the current date resolve YES and all dates before resolve NO.

Specifically, the market will resolve if:

1. The English Wikipedia article currently titled "Gaza genocide" is either deleted, renamed to a title that does not include "genocide" (e.g., "Gaza conflict," "Israel-Hamas war allegations," or similar without the term "genocide" directly asserting it), or its lead section (the first paragraph) is fundamentally altered to remove the assertion that the conflict is a genocide.

2. The "Gaza genocide" entry is removed from the English Wikipedia article "List of genocides."

The primary source for resolution will be the English Wikipedia, specifically the "Gaza genocide" article (or its successor) and the "List of genocides" article. Links to these articles can be found at:

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_genocide

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_genocides

This needs to hold for 24 hours. A quick reversion won't count.

If English Wikipedia is deleted then this will trigger resolution.

Background

Wikipedia currently hosts a dedicated English article titled "Gaza genocide," which defines the conflict as "the ongoing, intentional, and systematic destruction of the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip carried out by Israel during the Gaza war". This title was adopted following a community vote among Wikipedia contributors, replacing an earlier title that included "allegations of genocide." The decision was based on a perceived consensus among scholars and human rights organizations, according to editor discussions. Additionally, the "Gaza genocide" is listed on Wikipedia's "List of genocides" page.

Considerations

Wikipedia's content, especially on highly controversial and ongoing events, is subject to continuous review and debate by its global volunteer editor community. Changes to article titles, content, or the inclusion in lists such as "List of genocides" typically reflect a consensus reached through Wikipedia's internal editorial processes, which can be dynamic and influenced by evolving external discourse and available sourcing. Different language versions of Wikipedia may also present varying narratives and classifications for the same event, reflecting independent editing communities and diverse source availability.

Wikipedia currently cites an academic consensus that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza. The ICJ has not reached yet a final verdict, but as of writing according to Manifold there is about a 20% chance that it will determine Israel committed genocide.

Thanks to the AI for helping to create this. Anyone is welcome to add new answers.

I WILL NOT BET IN THIS MARKET!

• Update 2025-10-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has noted that the Wikipedia "List of genocides" article includes events with ongoing scholarly debate over their classification as genocide, not only events with scholarly consensus. The creator plans to create another market and keep this one open.

See https://manifold.markets/nathanwei/by-when-will-wikipedia-stop-conside-SLnOuOU6PA for a market about when Wikipedia will stop considering Gaza a genocide.