Quantum computing is advancing slowly but surely towards being able to factor large numbers. Much of modern encryption relies on large numbers being unfactorable. Research is being done into quantum-safe encryption, but it hasn't really caught on.

If quantum computing gets to the point where people start being scared of it, and there's a rush to transition to safer encryption, this market resolves YES. If everyone acts wisely and updates their encryption far in advance of a quantum computer that can break it, this market resolves NO.

Yes, this is very subjective. I won't bet.

## Related questions

@IsaacKing Daniel Bernstein (cryptography celebrity) is suing NIST to reveal if they talked to the NSA about NIST PQC, which he suspects they did based on NIST's history of standardizing backdoor-ed algorithms. http://blog.cr.yp.to/20220805-nsa.html (skip to the Post Quantum Cryptography section)