Will AI or AI-assisted math break AES-256 before quantum computing does?
Plus
17
Ṁ4482040
27%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Lots of judgment calls involved in this, which I will resolve in good faith. (And I won’t bet on this.)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
Excepting the quantum aspect, this seems impossibly subjective.
What counts as “broken”? We have a 2^119 attack already! If a researcher crafts a “mere” 2^110 attack (~500x stronger than status quo), would that qualify?
What counts as “assisted”? If that researcher admits to mainly incidental use of LLM-based chatbots during their research, would that qualify?
Related questions
Related questions
Will Quantum computing break RSA encryption before 2030?
30% chance
Will AES-256 encryption be broken by 2070?
28% chance
Will quantum computing lead to a scramble to quickly update encryption algorithms?
44% chance
Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?
20% chance
Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?
79% chance
When will Quantum computing become viable?
2034
Will a quantum computer perform a calculation by 2026 that is impossible for any classical supercomputer?
56% chance
Will a quantum computer show a clear advantage vs classical computers in solving a major cryptographic problem by 2030?
41% chance
🔓What will happen before RSA-2048 encryption is widely considered broken?
Will a quantum computer factor a 6-bit number before 2026?
44% chance