Will AI or AI-assisted math break AES-256 before quantum computing does?
19
1kṀ11042040
16%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Lots of judgment calls involved in this, which I will resolve in good faith. (And I won’t bet on this.)
Update 2025-06-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is asking how to cancel this market, indicating they may resolve it to N/A.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will AES-256 encryption be broken by 2070?
79% chance
Will Quantum computing break RSA encryption before 2030?
38% chance
Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?
21% chance
Will AES-256 encryption be broken by 2033?
15% chance
Will a quantum computer perform a calculation by 2026 that is impossible for any classical supercomputer?
39% chance
Will quantum computing lead to a scramble to quickly update encryption algorithms?
46% chance
SHA-256 broken by quantum computer before 2030
8% chance
Which of the following quantum computing technologies will first succeed in breaking 256-bit Elliptic Curve Encryption?
Will quantum computing achieve practical advantage in cryptography before 2030?
20% chance
Will quantum computing break cybersecurity by 2030?
17% chance