Significant attack on post-quantum signature Dilithium published before Nov 2026
0
16
50
2026
50%
chance

Resolves Yes, if, before November 2026, an attack on quantum or conventional computer of the signature scheme Dilithium (1) is published (preprint, journal article or conference proceeding), that leads to NIST dropping the algorithm from its post-quantum standard, or discouraging its use; or alternatively, if multiple recognized/leading cryptographers recommend against its use.

I reserve the right to discuss in the comments, temporarily halt trading, and possibly even resolve N/A on ambiguity. Suggestions and comments on resolution criteria are welcome if made well in advance of the resolving event

(1) https://pq-crystals.org/dilithium/index.shtml

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