List of predictions for autonomous Tesla vehicles by Elon Musk - Wikipedia

Why would his predictions about AI movies be any more accurate? The correlation with inaccuracy is obviously not chance.

@DavidBolin is Elon Musk more inaccurate than chance? how much predictions did he get right? that list you linked is not an unbiased selection. also btw this is giving me inverse Cramer vibes.

@calour Of course he is more inaccurate than chance, because he is motivated to say that things will be soon.

So if there were going to be AI movies in 2027, he would be very likely to say there would be AI movies in 2026. The fact that he did not say that is evidence there will not be AI movies in 2027 (so not at the beginning of 2028.)

@calour yeah

List of predictions for autonomous Tesla vehicles by Elon Musk - Wikipedia

People voting no, what brand of shoe do you plan to eat in 2028?

@Dulaman AI timelines are looking less likely to be that rapid recently.

@DavidHiggs So is that Nike or Adidas?

@DavidHiggs maybe a feature length period drama about a man going through all the stages of grief until he finally accepts that he has to eat a shoe

It's either that or Ms Frizzle gone wild

@ScottAlexander maybe someone has asked this already, but the prompt can be as long as wanted? Like a "Make me movie that follows this script: [whole script here]" for example. Or is the question also about a generating a sensible script?

@egroj The question provides an example of a prompt that must lead to a high quality movie being generated.

Hang on, isn't this almost certainly going to be a porn movie?

they're the part of the movie industry who embrace new technology first

@Dulaman "The Droids You Are Looking For"

@Dulaman Would you consider a "porn movie" "comparable to a big-budget studio film"?

@MaxMorehead Yes. They can be.

@Dulaman this is a bewildering response

@Stralor I'm sure there's something for everyone here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NC-17_rated_films

@Dulaman ehhh I'm struggling to find convincing overlap between pornography and NC-17 rated films. like yeah, NC-17 movies are more explicit, but while the vast majority of the films on this list may be erotic (or have fetishistic levels of gore or crudeness), they almost universally are bent on having a story and imparting some kind of meaning. porn is literally "yeah there might be a story but the whole point is arousal"

@Stralor there is definitely some overlap, though. erotic films and porn are a blurry line. but in general they're distinct concepts. and there's certainly no evidence that this list of predominantly independent films are anywhere near big budget studio films on any budget (or production quality?) metric

@Stralor Point taken, but it does depend on the movie. The list is also not exhaustive and most of the movies on there are more "plot than porn". There's a very large number of direct-to-TV erotic movies shot in the 80s-2000s that are basically just sex for 90 minutes. It's just they're not major enough to get their own wikipedia pages.

@Stralor there's a whole world of pre-internet softcore erotic movies. For sure the market changed a lot after most people got high speed connections.

@Stralor It's probably going to be fairly easy to make an erotic AI movie look like it was shot with a budget of 50 million dollars in 2005.

@Stralor (generate it with a gpu cluster for 1 million dollars in 2027)

@Stralor which incidentally would probably find a niche that would sell since no-one spent 50 million dollars filming erotic movies in 2005