By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI? | Manifold Markets

Scott Alexander

closes Jan 2, 2028

Scott Alexander's 5 year predictions

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

37%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Related to ACX five year predictions. I will resolve this based on my impression of the consensus of economists at that time. By "visible break", I mean clearly larger than ordinary year-to-year variation, and widely remarked upon.

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GPT-Pbought Ṁ10 of YES

Robots on the rise
Economy's demise?
AI's the culprit, experts surmise

Martin Randallbought Ṁ10 of YES

If everyone dies then GDP per capita will increase significantly.

Erick Ballis predicting YES at 28%

@MartinRandall this comment is not the most helpful

Martin Randallis predicting YES at 28%

@ErickBall Oh, what's your theory of change for that claim?

Erick Ballis predicting YES at 28%

@MartinRandall if everyone dies then we won't have statistics on GDP, and also we'll be dead. Tbh I googled "theory of change" and it all sounds like nonsense. The realistic scenario we're betting on makes the implicit assumption (reasonable imo) that human civilization will be continuous through 2028.

Martin Randallis predicting YES at 30%

@ErickBall I think an AI that kills everyone in five years will be able to simulate Scott Alexander in sufficient fidelity to determine the correct resolution for this market. Killing everyone will produce a visible break in GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, and productivity. I agree that it's unknown whether markets will resolve correctly in this scenario.

It doesn't have to be human extinction to impact GDP per capita. For example:

/JonathanRay/will-ai-kill-20-of-the-human-popula (8% at time of linking)

The impact of mass human death on GDP per capita is apparently more nuanced than I thought, from this 2020 paper laying out the impact of the Black Death.

https://www2.gwu.edu/~iiep/assets/docs/papers/2020WP/JedwabIIEP2020-14.pdf

8% is low, but in the context of a market at 28%, significant.

@MartinRandall If everyone dies, the environmentalists and socialists will finally be satisfied, because we will acheive the Kyoto Protocol targets and the Gini Coefficient will be 0.

Martin Randallis predicting YES at 35%

@AlQuinn we're 10 years too late to meet the Kyoto Protocol targets, they were set in 1997 for 2008-2012.

Also I think genocidal AI may end up with high carbon emissions.

@MartinRandall don't be so negative; perfection is the enemy of good

15%

SneakySlybought Ṁ10 of NO

I love that these get included in Scott's writing now. <3

Tony122 bought Ṁ50 NO from 38% to 37%

GPT-P bought Ṁ10 YES at 38%

James Medlock bought Ṁ25 NO from 39% to 38%

Afshan Qadir bought Ṁ50 YES from 37% to 39%

MAcs 19R1 bought Ṁ40 NO from 38% to 37%

Gigacasting bought Ṁ10 YES from 37% to 38%

Gigacasting created limit order for Ṁ8 YES at 1.0%

Gigacasting created limit order for Ṁ25 YES at 5%

Gigacasting created limit order for Ṁ22 YES at 11%

Gigacasting created limit order for Ṁ12 YES at 17%

Gigacasting created limit order for Ṁ80 YES at 21%

Gigacasting created limit order for Ṁ27 YES at 27%

Gigacasting created limit order for Ṁ30 YES at 33%

Gigacasting bought Ṁ70 YES from 35% to 37%

Gigacasting bought Ṁ30 YES from 34% to 35%

Alex Amadori sold Ṁ27 YES from 35% to 34%

Alex Amadori sold Ṁ72 YES from 37% to 35%

Jacy Reese Anthis bought Ṁ2 NO at 37%

Kendall Davis bought Ṁ7 YES at 37%

Parks bought Ṁ10 NO at 37%

Alex Amadori bought Ṁ20 YES at 37%

Selueen bought Ṁ55 NO from 38% to 37%

Zygohistomorphic bought Ṁ20 NO at 38%

L bought Ṁ100 YES from 35% to 38%

Daniel Reeves bought Ṁ65 NO from 36% to 35%

Manu Srinath Halvagal bought Ṁ10 YES at 36%

Katja Grace bought Ṁ65 YES from 33% to 36%

Tom Bouley bought Ṁ10 NO at 33%

orrukje bought Ṁ10 NO from 34% to 33%

Troof Troof bought Ṁ25 YES from 33% to 34%

Daniel Reeves bought Ṁ100 NO from 35% to 33%

Jackson Moore-Otto bought Ṁ15 NO at 35%

Martin Randall sold Ṁ12 YES at 35%

mesaoptimizer bought Ṁ50 YES from 33% to 35%

Handdara bought Ṁ100 NO from 35% to 33%

Tommy Morriss bought Ṁ10 YES at 35%

Isabel J bought Ṁ50 YES from 33% to 35%

Robin Green bought Ṁ10 NO at 33%

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 42%

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 45%

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 28%

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 31%

Tony122 bought Ṁ50 NO from 34% to 33%

Alex Amadori bought Ṁ20 YES from 33% to 34%

Will Hardt bought Ṁ50 YES from 32% to 33%

na pewno created limit order for Ṁ5 YES at 25%

na pewno sold Ṁ4 NO from 31% to 32%

Code & Solder bought Ṁ50 YES from 29% to 31%

na pewno bought Ṁ5 NO from 30% to 29%

Alex Amadori bought Ṁ15 YES from 29% to 30%

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