By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Related to ACX five year predictions. I will resolve this based on my impression of the consensus of economists at that time. By "visible break", I mean clearly larger than ordinary year-to-year variation, and widely remarked upon.

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Mason avatar
GPT-Pbought Ṁ10 of YES

Robots on the rise
Economy's demise?
AI's the culprit, experts surmise

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randallbought Ṁ10 of YES

If everyone dies then GDP per capita will increase significantly.

ErickBall avatar
Erick Ballis predicting YES at 28%

@MartinRandall this comment is not the most helpful

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randallis predicting YES at 28%

@ErickBall Oh, what's your theory of change for that claim?

ErickBall avatar
Erick Ballis predicting YES at 28%

@MartinRandall if everyone dies then we won't have statistics on GDP, and also we'll be dead. Tbh I googled "theory of change" and it all sounds like nonsense. The realistic scenario we're betting on makes the implicit assumption (reasonable imo) that human civilization will be continuous through 2028.

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randallis predicting YES at 30%

@ErickBall I think an AI that kills everyone in five years will be able to simulate Scott Alexander in sufficient fidelity to determine the correct resolution for this market. Killing everyone will produce a visible break in GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, and productivity. I agree that it's unknown whether markets will resolve correctly in this scenario.

It doesn't have to be human extinction to impact GDP per capita. For example:

/JonathanRay/will-ai-kill-20-of-the-human-popula (8% at time of linking)

The impact of mass human death on GDP per capita is apparently more nuanced than I thought, from this 2020 paper laying out the impact of the Black Death.

8% is low, but in the context of a market at 28%, significant.

AlQuinn avatar
Al Quinn

@MartinRandall If everyone dies, the environmentalists and socialists will finally be satisfied, because we will acheive the Kyoto Protocol targets and the Gini Coefficient will be 0.

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randallis predicting YES at 35%

@AlQuinn we're 10 years too late to meet the Kyoto Protocol targets, they were set in 1997 for 2008-2012.

Also I think genocidal AI may end up with high carbon emissions.

AlQuinn avatar
Al Quinn

@MartinRandall don't be so negative; perfection is the enemy of good

tailcalled avatar


SneakySly avatar
SneakySlybought Ṁ10 of NO

I love that these get included in Scott's writing now. <3