Will the US Gini index measured by the OECD go above 0.43 before the end of 2028, potentially due to AI developments ?
Mini
9
Ṁ992028
32%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The Gini index is one of the most basic inequalities agregation measure. The resolution will be based on OECD data, https://data.oecd.org/inequality/income-inequality.htm
The US in the recent years have been hovering between 0.39 and 0.40 with a small decrease in 2020/2021 and got back to 0.395 in 2022.
World bank data and OECD data do not agree on the value in the recent years, the world bank (https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=US) puts the all time high at 0.415 in 2014 while OECD puts it at 0.396 in 2013, which may be coming from different methodologies. Arbitrary, the OECD data has been chosen for resolution.
In any case, an index of 0.43 is unseen in the modern history of the US (at least since 1960)
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
41% chance
Will the US Gini coefficient as measured by the World Bank exceed 41.5 in 2028?
27% chance
Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030?
20% chance
Will some U.S. software engineers be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025?
71% chance
Will more than half the US population actively work with AI daily by 2027?
39% chance
Will there be an AI bubble before 2030?
80% chance
Will some U.S. accountants be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025?
45% chance
What will US GDP growth be 1 year after AI achieves programming competency?
4
What will AI's contribution to the economy look like in 2030?
Will AI have a significant impact on a national (general) election in an OECD country by 01-01-2028?
83% chance