To resolve YES, Trump must launch some sort of military action within Iranian territory, such as a drone strike, an air strike, or an act of CIA sabotage. The action must be confirmed by reliable sources to have been launched by the United States or by Israel with support from the United States.
The protests will be considered to have ended when the chart posted by https://x.com/INTELonIRAN for number of protesters observed per day goes below 75 protesters
for a week straight (the first day with <75 is considered the end of the protests, but if they restart again before a week, then they are considered to be ongoing), or the account stops posting the chart and a week passes without updates.
Update 2026-01-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Since the X account (@INTELonIRAN) has stopped posting the chart, numbers from their text posts summarizing visually observed protesters will be used as the equivalent of the chart value for determining when protests have fizzled out (i.e., when numbers go below 75 protesters for a week straight).
Update 2026-01-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the @INTELonIRAN account does not post evidence of continuing protests by January 20 UTC, the market will resolve NO (assuming no strikes have occurred by then). The one-week countdown period for protests being considered "fizzled out" has started as of the creator's comment on the latest post from the account.
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"fizzles out" is an odd way to say "violently suppressed with thousands being murdered by regime forces".
@Lorelai call me naive but i was kinda hoping they wouldn't do that and they would just lose momentum. :|
@SaviorofPlant they've already admitted to massacring more than 2,000 people which means the real number is going to be at least three times that. And it hasn't stopped yet.
NYT: "Nonessential U.S. military personnel are being evacuated from a large air base in Qatar as Mr. Trump weighs military action in response to the Iranian government’s crackdown on protests. The Pentagon began moving personnel because of the tension with Iran, according to two U.S. military officials"
The X account linked for resolution has stopped posting the chart, but they are still posting summaries of the number of protesters visually observed. Numbers from these posts will be considered as the equivalent of the chart value for resolution purposes; the most recent is still showing more than 75, so they have not "fizzled out" as of today (Jan 12)
Lovely. The most recent number posted by this account was still above late December levels although much smaller than the peak of the protests, but we can consider the 1 week period to have started since I chose this as my resolution source (market resolves NO if no strikes by Jan 20 UTC and account does not post evidence of continuing protests by then)
Trump 'seriously inclined' to help Iranian protesters, sources tell 'Post'
US President Donald Trump is expected to assist Iranians who are protesting nationwide against the Islamic Republic regime, several sources familiar with the details of the discussions held in recent days told The Jerusalem Post on Sunday.
“Trump has essentially decided to help the protesters in Iran. What he has not yet decided is the ‘how’ and the ‘when,’” they said.
On Saturday, Trump wrote on X/Twitter that Iran wants freedom, and that the US is ready to help.
In recent days, discussions have been taking place in Washington regarding assisting protesters, with several options on the table.
“The spectrum ranges from a military option, namely strikes against regime targets, to cyber support against the regime, to providing Starlink systems to help protesters,” one source told the Post.
Totally unconfirmed Twitter post:
Shanaka Anslem Perera @shanaka86
Rubio called Netanyahu while 400 bodies were stacking up at Kahrizak. Israeli source present on the call confirmed the topic.
US intervention in Iran. Not “if.” When. Israel is on maximum alert right now. Three sources in weekend security consultations confirmed it to Reuters.
But here’s what they didn’t tell you. Israel isn’t preparing for Iran to attack them. Israel is preparing for America to attack Iran. That’s the story.
Trump has been briefed on strike options. Non-military targets in Tehran among them. The New York Times confirmed it Saturday night citing multiple US officials. No final decision.
But the options are on the table and the bombers are fueled. Six B-2 Spirits at Diego Garcia. Half the entire stealth bomber fleet. Dozens of KC-135 tankers surged to Qatar since January 5.
The same pattern preceded Operation Midnight Hammer in June. You don’t need carriers to bomb Tehran. You need bunker busters. The carriers are a distraction. The tankers are the tell.
Qalibaf addressed parliament today with a message for Trump: “US military bases, ships, and Israel will be targeted. Preemptive strikes are not ruled out.” No metaphors. No diplomacy. Straight threat.
Qatar Airways suspended flights. Emirates suspended flights. Turkish Airlines suspended flights. Lufthansa suspended flights. When commercial aviation clears the airspace, someone expects ordnance.
Two eyewitnesses at Kahrizak morgue south of Tehran told Iran International they counted over 400 bodies. Friday alone: 44 corpses to Madani Hospital in Karaj. 36 to Ghaem Hospital. Farabi Eye Hospital in Tehran: 300 patients with pellets in their eyes. The threshold Trump set has been crossed ten times over. The call happened. The briefing happened. The positioning happened. What happens next defines the decade.
@skibidist I am tired of thinking there's news every time someone makes a tiny bet, I am adding liquidity