When and how will Donald Trump declare a victory in the US-Iran conflict?
12
Ṁ125Ṁ434resolved Apr 8
100%86%
By unilateral declaration (Speech/Social Media) by end of 2026
4%
By formal treaty or peace agreement (Before July 2026)
4%
By formal treaty or peace agreement (July–Dec 2026)
2%
Any victory declaration in 2027 or later
3%
Never (No declaration, or conflict continues)
This market resolves to the first official instance of President Trump declaring "victory," a "successful conclusion," or "major combat operations ended." If the conflict ends without such a specific declaration, or if the US withdraws without a victory statement, it resolves to "Never".
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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