Resolution Deadline

This market resolves based on events occurring on or before 11:59 PM Eastern Time (ET) on July 4, 2026. Only actions that occur before that timestamp count.

Core Resolution Rule

This market resolves YES if, before the deadline, one or more uniformed members of the United States Armed Forces physically enter the internationally recognized sovereign land territory of Iran to conduct a military mission. If this does not occur, the market resolves NO.

Definitions

1. “Uniformed members of the United States Armed Forces” means:

Active-duty personnel in:

• U.S. Army

• U.S. Navy

• U.S. Marine Corps

• U.S. Air Force

• U.S. Space Force

• U.S. Coast Guard (if operating under DoD authority)

This includes:

• Special Operations Forces (e.g., Delta Force, SEALs, Rangers, etc.)

• Small elite units

• Limited task forces

• Joint Special Operations Command units

This does NOT include:

• CIA personnel

• Contractors

• Mercenaries

• Proxy forces

• Foreign allied troops

• Retired personnel

• Unmarked paramilitary groups unless confirmed as U.S. military

2. “Physically enter” means:

A U.S. service member is physically present on Iranian sovereign land territory.

This includes:

• Air insertion

• Ground crossing

• Helicopter landing

• Temporary incursion

• Raid lasting minutes or hours

Duration does not matter.
Force size does not matter.
Whether casualties occur does not matter.

If a single U.S. soldier conducts a 30-minute raid on Iranian soil, this qualifies.

3. “Iranian sovereign land territory” means:

Internationally recognized land territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

This does NOT include:

• Iranian airspace alone

• Iranian territorial waters alone

• Missile or drone overflight

• Cyber operations

• Naval actions without land presence

• Operations launched from neighboring countries without ground entry

Troops must physically set foot on land inside Iran.

4. “Military mission” means:

Any organized operation under U.S. military authority, including but not limited to:

• Ground invasion (any scale)

• Limited raid

• Hostage rescue

• Capture/kill mission

• Sabotage operation

• Forward targeting or reconnaissance mission

• Temporary occupation

• Force projection deployment

Intent matters — accidental border crossings do NOT count.

Explicit Non-Qualifying Scenarios (= NO)

This market resolves NO if the only actions are:

• Airstrikes

• Drone strikes

• Missile strikes

• Naval bombardment

• Cyber operations

• Sanctions

• Special forces staging near Iran but not entering

• CIA-only operations without confirmed U.S. military ground presence

• Contractors operating in Iran

• Marines performing routine embassy protection only

• Rhetorical claims of “boots on the ground” without verified entry

• Accidental or navigation-error border crossings

Covert Operations Clause

If a U.S. military ground operation in Iran is covert at the time but is:

• Officially acknowledged by the U.S. government, OR

• Confirmed by at least two independent major reputable news organizations before the deadline, then it qualifies as YES. Single-source reporting, anonymous social media posts, or unverified leaks are insufficient.

Evidence Standard

Resolution will be based on:

• Official U.S. government confirmation, OR

• Reporting from at least two of the following (or equivalent tier outlets):

  • Associated Press (AP)

  • Reuters

  • New York Times

  • Washington Post

  • Wall Street Journal

  • BBC

If credible confirmation emerges after the deadline that the operation occurred before the deadline, it still qualifies as YES.

Presidential Authority Clause

The deployment must occur while Donald Trump is President of the United States.

If Trump is not President at the time of the deployment, this market resolves NO.

Summary Trigger

If uniformed U.S. military personnel conduct an intentional military operation on Iranian soil before July 4, 2026 → YES.

Anything short of physical ground presence → NO.