Will the Iranian protests end tragically?
8
1kṀ525Dec 31
41%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves YES if, as of December 31, 2026, all of the following conditions are met:
- The current wave of protests (beginning December 28, 2025) has substantially subsided
- The Islamic Republic system of government remains intact
- Cumulative protester deaths reached or exceeded 1,500 according to credible sources (Amnesty International, Iran Human Rights, HRANA, or Reuters)
Resolves NO if:
- The Islamic Republic fell or underwent fundamental constitutional change, OR
- Protests subsided with fewer than 1,500 protester deaths
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?
47% chance
Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?
68% chance
Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?
49% chance
How many people will die as a part of the 2025-26 Iranian protests?
188
Will Trump attack Iran before the current wave of protests fizzles out?
43% chance
Will the current wave of Iranian protests be suppressed by the end of 2026?
62% chance
Will Iran have a civil war before the start of 2028?
36% chance
What will happen first in Iran?
Will Iran become more authoritarian in 2025?
72% chance
If Khamenei is forcibly removed from power, will the Islamic regime survive?
57% chance