What will be true of OpenAI's Orion model?
Plus
30
Ṁ2309Nov 30
85%
It will score better on SWE-Bench Verified than Claude 3.5 Sonnet (October version)
82%
The preparedness scorecard for the model will not be above Medium risk for any category
69%
It will score better on GPQA than o1-preview (73% pass@1)
62%
It will be released before Claude 3.5 Opus or Claude 4
57%
It will be able to output audio without calling another model
45%
It will be called GPT-5
38%
It will be released via ChatGPT before the full o1 model is released via ChatGPT (not o1-preview)
38%
It will have a context window of >= 1 million tokens
36%
It will be able to take video as input
36%
It will be able to output images without calling another model
36%
Once it is available to the public, a Manifold poll asking if it is better or worse than expected will find that it is better than expected
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@JoshYou I will extend the close date of this market until the release is announced.
If the release is delayed and it's unclear whether a released model is Orion, I'll wait for high quality reporting on whether or not a new model is Orion or not. If this never comes, every answer N/As.
Related questions
Related questions
What will be true of OpenAI's Sora* model, at the end of 2025? [*see description]
Which of these companies will release a model that thinks before it responds like O1 from OpenAI by EOY 2024?
Will Anthropic release a model that thinks before it responds like o1 from OpenAI by EOY 2024?
33% chance
Will OpenAI release a product with the word "Orion" in its name before 2025?
14% chance
By the end of Q2 2025 will an open source model beat OpenAI’s o1 model?
61% chance
By the end of Q1 2025 will an open source model beat OpenAI’s o1 model?
24% chance
What will happen to OpenAI next year?
Will OpenAI release their o1 model before 2025?
77% chance
Will anyone be able to get OpenAI’s new model o1 to leak its system message by EOY 2024?
21% chance
Will OpenAI release an image model better than DALL-E 3 in 2024?
67% chance