Will Anthropic release a model that thinks before it responds like o1 from OpenAI by EOY 2024?
114
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resolved Dec 31
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NO

As most of you already know openai released a new model called o1 capable of reasoning. In OpenAI's words the model can:

spend more time thinking before they respond. They can reason through complex tasks and solve harder problems than previous models in science, coding, and math.

I wonder if Anthropic is already working on something that gets released this year. Even if it’s invite-only, we need to see evidence that the model exists and that someone outside Anthropic’s network of family and friends has access to it. The model should be able to reason for different timeframes based on the complexity of a problem before coming up with a response.

/Soli/will-a-finetuned-opensource-model-u

/Soli/which-of-these-companies-will-relea

/Soli/will-anthropic-google-xai-or-meta-r

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7mo

@traders /Soli/which-of-these-companies-will-relea

8mo

@traders /Soli/will-anthropic-google-xai-or-meta-r

bought Ṁ1,000 NO8mo

I kinda doubt they release anything other than Claude 3.5 Opus before EOY. I’m sure they’re working on this but I would expect mid 2025 or so (maybe as part of Claude 4)

bought Ṁ50 NO8mo

could be fuzzy. Claude already does AntThinking hidden CoT tokens. what counts as Yes here?

@JoshYou good question, by this logic gpt-4o was already doing some reasoning/thinking but this market is clearly looking for something much more significant. i expect anthropic to make a press release like they usually do that contains the words chain-of-thought but would not require this as a condition. let’s just say the model should be able to reason for different timeframes same as o1 based on the complexity of a problem

bought Ṁ50 NO8mo

this is quite a bit higher than I'd expect, hmmm

8mo

@Bayesian i am trying to attract traders at this point :p

bought Ṁ100 NO8mo

@Soli Will you take a big NO limit order at 53%?

8mo

@Bayesian no because you already participated in the market :)

opened a Ṁ25,000 NO at 53% order8mo

@Soli your market will be seen by more people if it has a higher trading volume tho..

8mo

@Bayesian yeah we are on different levels haha i only have 900 mana left

8mo

@Bayesian but your comments surely help

.

@Bayesian i can do 750mana at 53. i put a limit order

bought Ṁ200 NO8mo

Seems too quick

@JamesBaker3 you are assuming they haven't been working on a similar model already which i think is an incorrect assumption

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