Update 2024-21-12 (PST): - If Orion is not planned for release, most options will be resolved as N/A (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-02-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Update:
Release Confirmation: Orion is now confirmed to be released.
Resolution Timing: The market will resolve next month based on this confirmed release.
Update 2025-02-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Anthropic Model Naming Exception
If Anthropic releases its reasoning model before Orion, but it is not named Claude 3.5 Opus or Claude 4, the market will resolve YES.
Update 2025-02-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): GPQA Option Update:
The resolution for the GPQA option is now set to NO due to a correction by the creator.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ410 | |
| 2 | Ṁ154 | |
| 3 | Ṁ145 | |
| 4 | Ṁ144 | |
| 5 | Ṁ138 |
@SaviorofPlant How would this be resolved if Anthropic had released its reasoning model before Orion, but it would be not named Claude 4?
@JanPydych Would resolve YES. Don't really understand why it's trading so low, seems plausible the new Anthropic model will not be named either of those things?
@SaviorofPlant To be honest, I think that one of the options could be the release of a new checkpoint of Claude 3.5 Sonnet, but with the addition of the "reasoning_effort" parameter (or however Anthropic will name it).
@SaviorofPlant As I understand, according to the latest from Sam Altman, GPT-5 is planned to be a combination of 4.5 and o3, or something like that? Will probably N/A this option in that case.
@JoshYou I will extend the close date of this market until the release is announced.
If the release is delayed and it's unclear whether a released model is Orion, I'll wait for high quality reporting on whether or not a new model is Orion or not. If this never comes, every answer N/As (besides the "it will be released before X" options).
@SaviorofPlant Based on The Information articles, Orion is apparently not planned for release. Not sure how long I'll wait before N/Aing most of these
@SaviorofPlant Looks like it's being released after all, this market should resolve next month. Reopening for a week