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MANIFOLD
When will there be ≥10GW of data center capacity in space?
16
Ṁ2kṀ3.8k
2039
3%
By end of 2027
6%
By end of 2028
7%
By end of 2029
13%
By end of 2030
20%
By end of 2031
23%
By end of 2032
37%
By end of 2033
50%
By end of 2034
71%
By end of 2035
80%
By end of 2036
84%
By end of 2037

Resolution Criteria:

Resolves YES for an option if, by that date, space-based data centers meet ALL of:

1. Location: In space (beyond the Kármán line, 100km altitude)

2. Aggregate capacity: ≥10GW total power draw capacity across all qualifying space-based data center infrastructure, cumulative across all operators and facilities

3. AI compute: Each contributing facility must be used for machine learning workloads (training or inference)

4. Power accounting: Counts power draw by compute equipment (GPUs/TPUs/accelerators, CPUs, memory, networking, cooling). Solar collection capacity does not count.

5. Operational threshold: Each contributing facility must demonstrate ≥30 days continuous operation to count toward the total

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