Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
When will the first real data center (≥1 MW) be operating in space?
2
Ṁ175Ṁ109
2036
6%
By end of 2027
6%
2028
10%
2029
10%
2030
19%
2031–2032
16%
2033–2035
33%
2036 or later / Never

The question: When will the first genuine data center — meaning >=1 MW of compute (IT) power — be operating in space?

This is deliberately set well above "a computer in orbit." A single GPU (Starcloud-1, Nov 2025) or a couple of "nodes" (Axiom, Jan 2026) are about 1 kW class and do not count. 1 MW (roughly 1,000 datacenter-class GPUs) is the threshold where orbital compute becomes real infrastructure rather than a demonstrator.

Resolves to the year in which the first qualifying facility is first confirmed operational, per a credible company announcement corroborated by at least one major outlet (Reuters, CNBC, Data Center Dynamics, etc.).

What counts:

  • A single spacecraft, or a tightly co-located cluster operating as one data center, delivering >=1 MW of IT/compute power (power drawn by the compute hardware, not total bus/array capacity).

  • "Operational" = powered on and running real compute workloads in orbit — not merely launched, not a ground test, not a planned/announced capacity.

  • Any orbit (LEO, GEO, etc.) or station-attached.

What does NOT count:

  • Compute bundled onto comms satellites (e.g. inference on Starlink) unless the dedicated compute hardware alone meets 1 MW.

  • A distributed constellation aggregating to 1 MW across many separate, non-co-located satellites. The 1 MW must be one facility/cluster acting as a single data center.

  • Launched-but-not-yet-powered hardware, or stated nameplate/future capacity.

Edge cases:

  • If a facility is confirmed operational but the exact compute-power figure is disputed, it resolves YES only if credible reporting supports >=1 MW of compute power specifically.

  • "Never" within this market means: not met before Jan 1, 2036, which resolves the 2036 or later / Never bucket.

  • The creator will resolve strictly on public reporting.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!