Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if an official report from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), or the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) states that data centers consumed more than 10.0% of total U.S. electricity usage (or retail sales, consumption, or grid demand) during the calendar year 2028.

Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

Key Details:

• Primary Source of Truth: Reports such as the LBNL/DOE Report on U.S. Data Center Energy Use (available at energy.gov) or the EIA's Annual Energy Outlook / Electric Power Annual (available at eia.gov) covering the calendar year 2028.

• Calculation Fallback: If the report does not explicitly state a final percentage but provides both the U.S. data center electricity consumption (in TWh or BkWh) and total U.S. electricity consumption/sales (in TWh or BkWh) for 2028, the percentage will be calculated as: $$\text{Percentage} = \left(\frac{\text{U.S. Data Center Consumption}}{\text{Total U.S. Electricity Consumption}}\right) \times 100$$

• Resolution Timing: This market will remain open or pending until official retrospective statistics for the full year 2028 are published. This is expected to occur in late 2029 or early 2030. If no official DOE, LBNL, or EIA report is released by December 31, 2030, the market may resolve using the median estimate from reputable independent industry bodies (e.g., the International Energy Agency (IEA) or the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)) at the creator's discretion.

Background

The rise of generative artificial intelligence, machine learning, and high-performance cloud computing has driven a massive acceleration in data center construction across the United States. In late 2024, the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) published its Report on U.S. Data Center Energy Use, which found that data centers consumed approximately 176 TWh—or 4.4% of total U.S. electricity—in 2023.

Projections for 2028 vary significantly:

• LBNL / DOE: Projects that U.S. data center electricity demand will reach between 325 TWh and 580 TWh by 2028, representing 6.7% to 12.0% of total U.S. electricity demand.

• EPRI: Projects data centers could consume 9% to 17% of U.S. electricity generation by 2030 (revised up 60% from their 2024 estimates due to rapid AI development).

• EIA: Highlighted in its Annual Energy Outlook 2026 that data center server usage is reshaping commercial building intensity, forecasting that servers alone could account for 22% to 33% of commercial building electricity use by 2050.

This market centers on whether the actual consumption in 2028 will ultimately cross the 10.0% threshold.

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