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MANIFOLD
Will any single datacenter PPA ≥1GW be announced by a hyperscaler before 2026-12-31?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ1
Dec 31
65%
chance

Resolves YES if, on or before 2026-12-31, any of the following companies publicly announce a power purchase agreement (PPA), behind-the-meter agreement, nuclear/renewable supply contract, or equivalent power arrangement of ≥1,000 MW (1 GW) or more, dedicated to a single datacenter or datacenter campus:

  • Amazon (AWS), Microsoft (Azure), Alphabet (Google Cloud), Meta, Oracle Cloud, Apple, IBM Cloud

  • Or any "neocloud" (CoreWeave, Lambda, Crusoe, etc.)

Source of truth: public press releases, SEC filings, EIA datacenter-electricity reports, utility-commission filings (state PUCs publish PPAs), or major news outlets reporting based on these primary sources.

The deal must be specifically for a datacenter or datacenter campus, not a portfolio-level corporate procurement. Multi-site aggregations don't count unless ≥1 GW is dedicated to a single named datacenter.

Resolution date: 2026-12-31.


About this market. This market is part of SCB/SCO Reference Run #001 — AI Compute (30-day longitudinal demonstration) under Leadership Under Uncertainty. It is a research-demonstration corpus, not a commercial product.

Open-Sources-Only Commitment. This market resolves only against publicly accessible sources (SEC filings, government data, public benchmark publications, public corporate communications). Subscription-gated analyst content is not used in resolution.

Creator-is-not-trader. The creator of this market does not place trades on it. Probabilities reflect community trading.

Pre-registration. Question wording, resolution criteria, and close date were locked before any market data was observed and cryptographically anchored on day 0 of the run via the SCB/SCO daily Merkle seal. See protocol.

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