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MANIFOLD
When will the first orbital data center with ≥1 MW of compute power become operational?
4
Ṁ1kṀ902
2036
5%
Before end of 2028
24%
2029-2030
27%
2031-2032
18%
2033-2034
11%
2035-2036
11%
Not before 2037
4%
Other

The market resolves to the period containing the first date on which a space-based computing facility meets ALL of the following:

  1. Power: At least 1 MW of electrical power dedicated to computing payloads (not total bus power). A single spacecraft or a constellation explicitly operated as one integrated compute cluster (e.g., optically interconnected and marketed/operated as a single facility) both qualify. Aggregating unrelated satellites does not.

  2. Operational: The facility has performed commercial or institutional computing workloads for at least 30 consecutive days. Demonstrators count only if serving external customers or sustained internal production workloads (e.g., the operator's own training/inference).

  3. In space: Earth orbit, cislunar space, or the lunar surface.

  4. Verification: Credible public evidence — operator announcements with technical detail, regulatory filings, independent reporting from at least two reputable outlets (SpaceNews, Ars Technica, DCD, etc.), or third-party tracking data consistent with the claims.

The qualifying date is when the 30-day operational period is completed. If evidence is disputed, I may wait up to 3 months for clarification before resolving.

Criteria updates: Given the long time horizon and how fast this industry is evolving, I reserve the right to clarify or refine these criteria over time (e.g., how to count constellation power, edge cases on what constitutes "one facility"), always in the spirit of the original question and never to flip an outcome that has already clearly occurred. Any clarification will be announced in a comment and added to this description with a date stamp.


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