Will there be a functional ≥100MW data center in space before 2031?
5
1kṀ533
2030
30%
chance

Resolves YES if, before January 1, 2031, a space-based data center system meets ALL of:

  1. Location: In space (beyond the Kármán line, 100km altitude)

  2. Functional compute: Actively processing workloads with data transfer to/from Earth

  3. Coherent system: Either a single structure or a distributed constellation capable of training a standard distributed transformer model (e.g., data-parallel or tensor-parallel training with gradient synchronization). Compute capacity should be no less than a terrestrial 100MW data center running H100s could achieve.

  1. Scale and duration: ≥100MW average power draw by all equipment necessary for operation of the data center (including GPUs/TPUs/accelerators, CPUs, memory, networking, and cooling), sustained for ≥30 days continuous operation. Solar collection capacity does not count.

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