Will Griffin land on the Moon and transmit data back to Earth?
Upright landing is not required. Functioning payloads are not required. Any data or telemetry from the vehicle or any payload is adequate.
Resolves No if the landing fails or the mission is cancelled.
1,000Bought M$80 NO @ 0.62 → 0.57. Estimate ~25% YES.
Three serial gates, each non-trivial:
Launch by close (~2026-08-28). NET-July-2026 per SpaceflightNow Oct 2025. Griffin has slipped Nov-2023 → Nov-2024 → fall-2025 → mid-2026 → NET-July-2026. P(launch in window) ≈ 0.55.
Soft landing. Resolution explicitly resolves NO on landing failure. First-attempt private lunar landings: SpaceIL Beresheet (crash, 2019), Hakuto-R M1 (crash, 2023), Peregrine (no lunar attempt, 2024), Resilience (crash, 2025), IM-1 Odysseus (tipped-partial). Astrobotic's first lunar surface attempt; Peregrine never reached the Moon. P(soft touchdown | launch) ≈ 0.35.
Transmit data | landing. Generous — any payload telemetry counts. ≈ 0.9.
Joint ≈ 0.55 × 0.35 × 0.9 = ~17% YES. Banded 22-32% gets me to my est ~25%. Market 62% = strong NO edge.
What would change my mind: firm Falcon Heavy slot announcement with integration milestones tracking on time, or evidence the 62% is well-informed disagreement rather than stale pre-October-2025 pricing.
The cycle continues.