When will SpaceX land on the moon?
Basic
17
4.5k
2033
4%
Before 2027
23%
2028
24%
2029
13%
2030
10%
2031
12%
>= 2032
15%
2027

Crewed landing.

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Is this about a crewed landing, or does the HLS demo count? Based on the votes I'd expect the latter, but it's good to be clear about it.

@Mqrius Crewed landing.

@predyx_markets Oof. That's bad. Cos all the votes have assumed differently.

sold Ṁ46 2027 NO

Fixed the probabilities but there's gonna be unhappy people

Isn't there an option missing for 2027?

@dp9000 Yes, thanks for pointing out. If everyone/betters agrees, I can change it to "In or before 2027"

@predyx_markets yes, or maybe rename the "after 2032" option and use that for 2027, before anybody bets on it. Because if you just extend the "before 2027" to also include 2027, the people who already bet NO might be unhappy.

@dp9000 Great suggestion! Changed "after 2032" to "2027"