Will Firefly Aerospace's Blue Ghost M1 mission successfully land on the moon?
Will Firefly Aerospace's Blue Ghost M1 mission successfully land on the moon?
19
1kṀ1715
Mar 2
70%
chance

Firefly is a private spaceflight company. The Blue Ghost lander has been contracted by NASA under the Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program to build and fly a lander to the surface of the moon. It should launch in 2024.

For a successful mission the Blue Ghost lander needs to soft-land on the moon, and the payloads on the lander need to be operational.

Blue Ghost M1 will be followed by Blue Ghost M2.

Space
Space exploration
Commercial spaceflight
Moon
Moon landers
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1mo

https://apnews.com/article/nasa-firefly-aerospace-blue-ghost-moon-landing-07b00840da07441e1e24b48509458f3f

bought Ṁ100 NO2mo

If the lander soft-lands on the Moon and functions normally, but one or more of the payloads are not operational because they have their own failures unrelated to the landing, how does this resolve?

2mo

@sesquipedalianThaumaturge you can see this market for the IM1 lander, that was resolved by person that made this market, and how it went, but in general as stated in this market, I think it shouldn't affect the resolution, as this is about the landing.

2mo

@ScipioFabius The resolution criterion for that market was that the lander "needs to soft-land on the moon such that the landing does not interfere with the function of the payloads", but for this one it's that the lander "needs to soft-land on the moon, and the payloads on the lander need to be operational." This seems importantly different, which is why I'm not sure if it's meant to be the same.

2mo

@sesquipedalianThaumaturge Fair, you are right on that.

2mo

@mods this market needs attention, creator inactive. The mission has launched and is active, this market should be reopened.

bought Ṁ100 NO6mo

I assume it will resolve NO if it does not land by the Jan 1 2025 close date.

bought Ṁ50 YES4mo

@LarsOsborne I believe this is not the case, since the launch date has been pushed to January. @Sailfish could you clarify please?

bought Ṁ25 NO11mo

What makes a payload "operational"? What if the payloads aren't working but it's not caused by the landing?

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