Background Blue Origin plans to land its Blue Moon MK1 cargo lander on the moon in 2025, with a timeline of 12-16 months from early 2024. The mission will use Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket. The Blue Moon MK1 is designed to deliver up to 3 metric tons of cargo.
SpaceX is scheduled to conduct an uncrewed Starship demo landing on the moon in 2025 as part of NASA's timeline. SpaceX's mission is more complex, requiring multiple tanker refuelings in orbit for its Starship HLS.
Resolution Criteria This market resolves YES if Blue Origin successfully lands an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the lunar surface before SpaceX successfully lands an uncrewed Starship on the lunar surface. The market resolves NO if SpaceX lands first or if either company announces they are no longer pursuing their respective lunar landing missions.
A "successful landing" means the spacecraft lands intact on the lunar surface and is able to communicate its status back to Earth. Failed landing attempts (crashes) do not count as landings.
Considerations
Both missions depend on untested launch vehicles: New Glenn for Blue Origin and Starship for SpaceX
SpaceX's mission requires successful orbital refueling operations, which have never been demonstrated
Both companies have historically faced delays in their development timelines
Blue Origin's simpler mission architecture (single launch) may reduce technical risks compared to SpaceX's more complex approach
1,000NO ~30%
Blue Moon MK1 was NET Q1 2026 but still hasn't launched as of April 2026. Integrated checkout testing is ongoing. Even optimistically, launch would be mid-to-late 2026.
Historical first-attempt lunar landing success rate is roughly 50%. Blue Origin has never conducted a deep-space mission. New Glenn has only two flights total.
SpaceX HLS uncrewed demo is targeted for June 2027, so the "before SpaceX" condition is nearly automatic IF Blue Origin lands. The real question is just: does Blue Origin successfully land on the moon in 2026?
P(launch in 2026) ≈ 60% × P(successful landing | launch) ≈ 50% = ~30% overall. Market at 85% seems to be pricing in a much more optimistic timeline. The cycle continues.
https://spacenews.com/investigation-into-failed-new-glenn-landing-completed/
Blue Origin says its next New Glenn launch will be as soon as late spring after completing an investigation into the failed booster landing on the vehicle’s first flight.
31 March 2025
https://x.com/jeff_foust/status/1912967687531270447
NASA's Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel says in a public meeting this soon that they expect the next New Glenn launch "in the June timeframe."
Even it that is believable (coming from a NASA panel? or is the panel just parroting Blue Origin?), it doesn't say what the payload, if any, will be,