Resolution Criteria
Blue Moon Mk 1 Pathfinder is set to launch no earlier than early 2026, with the lander expected to touch down near the Shackleton crater at the Moon's south pole. The market resolves to the month in which Blue Moon Mk 1 successfully lands on the lunar surface. Resolution will be determined by official Blue Origin announcements and NASA confirmation of a successful landing. Successful landing is defined by the spacecraft transmitting data from the surface.
Background
The mission will demonstrate critical systems, including the BE-7 engine, cryogenic fluid power and propulsion systems, avionics, continuous downlink communications, and precision landing with an accuracy within 100 meters. The Pathfinder mission is partially funded by NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program, under which Blue Origin was awarded US$6.1 million in July 2024 to transport the Stereo Cameras for Lunar Plume Surface Studies payload. The Blue Moon MK1 Pathfinder will take 5-7 days to reach the moon after translunar insertion.
1,000Restricted creator account. @JoshuaWilkes
Blue Moon flies on New Glenn which is probably struggling to return to flight in 2026 even if they still claim to be still aiming for NET 2026 for RTF.
Even if it does manage to RTF by end of 2026, first blue Moon flight is not earlier than (NET) Q1 2027.
Artemis III does not plan to land on moon only going to Low Earth Orbit and is planned for after this in late 2027.
Confident of this, but sufficiently sure of this to resolve early? Maybe it is still possible that RTF mission is unclear enough that it would be a step too far to resolve early?