What will Manifold's biggest growth vector be over Q3 2022?
11
700Ṁ286
resolved Oct 5
39%8%
A specific market goes viral
39%6%
Sponsored tournaments
9%22%
Refer a friend
9%7%
BTE creating a Nancy Pelosi market which is tweeted about by a Chinese KOL, whatever that is.
4%0.2%
Manifold Twitter Creators Program
9%Other
33%
Twitch bot
1.0%
Challenge betting
0.7%
Twitter bot
0.6%
"Share this bet on Twitter"
11%
There is no significant growth
0.5%
Relevant HackerNews resolution/market (needs to be a highly detailed one in which case)

What will be the biggest and most impactful way we grow our DAUs (daily active users) over the next 3 months July 15th - September 30th?

Potential answers can be different marketing channels (SEO, FB/twitter ads), growth hacks (M$ referral bonuses), celebrity endorsements, you name it! Sussing out the causality of precisely which mechanism led to growth may not always be so clear. I'll try to resolve according to my best judgment.

I will also, on the margin, prefer specific helpful answers (e.g. start a FB marketing campaign targeting ACX readers who recently graduated from MIT), over more correct but vaguer ones (e.g. "ads").

You can follow our progress in real time on our analytics dashboard: https://manifold.markets/stats

Previous market: https://manifold.markets/SG/what-will-manifolds-biggest-growth

Notion table tracking all of our growth ideas: https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/db075c90b6e348f181f1aa2a95f73787?v=bc6bdc293d6b46c2870488246b3527c8

Close date updated to 2022-09-30 11:09 pm

Resolution

Sponsored tournaments (especially the Salem Center tournament) and viral markets were the biggest growth vectors among the answers submitted below.

I'd say the actual biggest growth vector for Manifold in Q3 was re-engaging users who previously churned through a combination of core platform improvements (better performance, fewer bugs (esp on iOS), betting streaks, new homepage, etc.) and email outreach campaigns (weekly interesting markets email, etc.).

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