What will Manifold's biggest growth vector be over Q3 2022?

Basic

Ṁ286

resolved Oct 5

39%8%

A specific market goes viral

39%6%

Sponsored tournaments

9%22%

Refer a friend

9%7%

BTE creating a Nancy Pelosi market which is tweeted about by a Chinese KOL, whatever that is.

4%0.2%

Manifold Twitter Creators Program

9%Other

33%

Twitch bot

1.0%

Challenge betting

0.7%

Twitter bot

0.6%

"Share this bet on Twitter"

11%

There is no significant growth

0.5%

Relevant HackerNews resolution/market (needs to be a highly detailed one in which case)

What will be the biggest and most impactful way we grow our DAUs (daily active users) over the next 3 months July 15th - September 30th?

Potential answers can be different marketing channels (SEO, FB/twitter ads), growth hacks (M$ referral bonuses), celebrity endorsements, you name it! Sussing out the causality of precisely which mechanism led to growth may not always be so clear. I'll try to resolve according to my best judgment.

I will also, on the margin, prefer specific helpful answers (e.g. start a FB marketing campaign targeting ACX readers who recently graduated from MIT), over more correct but vaguer ones (e.g. "ads").

You can follow our progress in real time on our analytics dashboard: https://manifold.markets/stats

Previous market: https://manifold.markets/SG/what-will-manifolds-biggest-growth

Notion table tracking all of our growth ideas: https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/db075c90b6e348f181f1aa2a95f73787?v=bc6bdc293d6b46c2870488246b3527c8

Close date updated to 2022-09-30 11:09 pm

Resolution

Sponsored tournaments (especially the Salem Center tournament) and viral markets were the biggest growth vectors among the answers submitted below.

I'd say the actual biggest growth vector for Manifold in Q3 was re-engaging users who previously churned through a combination of core platform improvements (better performance, fewer bugs (esp on iOS), betting streaks, new homepage, etc.) and email outreach campaigns (weekly interesting markets email, etc.).

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@SG Dampu!

@Sinclair's answer would seem to cover this, but then again: https://manifold.markets/Duncan/among-current-heads-of-state-who-wi

https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-i-have-150-referrals-by-the-en

@SG interesting idea, any way to define and target groups more specifically and make it very seamless. People have strong opinions on diff topics: sports, stocks, politics, etc. They congregate online on certain sites, in group messages, etc. They think they know the future, they talk smack to their friends, and now they can bet with a few clicks. For example, I have friends in iMessage where we talk stocks, or economy and would be cool if I could just initiate a bet when they something seemingly probabilistically ludicrous to me. Target vertical by vertical, built a plugins and integrations into where people communicate, run a growth hack strategy to get certain users. Rinse, repeat, expand.

@SG Especially if used in conjunction with streamers' prediction system, I can immagine it being a thing

Well I don't personally believe this will be the case, it is a possibility. Additionally I think having this as an option to bet on can provide a lot of valuable information. If a lot of people start betting on this option then it means we need to change something about our product, as opposed to making changes to our growth strategy.

(this is a feature that lets you challenge other people to bet)

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